Wild Swings in Markets Likely to Continue
Our attention this week will be more to the cycles and planets than to the charts. Last weekend, we were looking for a 4/8 stock market cycle low due early in the week followed by a possible top either December 29 or 30th and then weakness for the rest of the week. December 25th had a Bradley turn with Uranus turning stationary/direct, and December 29th the moon was in Leo/Virgo, where oft times peaks have occurred. With the moon in Virgo and Saturn in Sagittarius, the set up was there for an end of year drop (and a 4/12 TD low).
On January fifth, we have a huge confluence of planetary factors to consider: firstly, Mercury goes stationary/retrograde in an air sign (Aquarius) while the moon is in Scorpio. Last time we saw Mercury go retrograde was September 17, 2015 when Mercury went stationary/retrograde in Libra while the moon entered Scorpio. The stock market then proceeded to fall 149 SPX points (from its top at 2020) in 8 trading sessions (to 1871) where the moon was in Aries/Taurus. This time Mercury will be square to the moon adding increasing tension.
January 5 is also near an important Bradley turn due January 4-6, along with a solar/lunar turn due. In addition, we have the Sun conjunct Pluto while in translation to the Uranus/ Pluto square (fulfilled with the Sun square Uranus on January 7th). Venus also translates the Neptune/Saturn square this coming week: Venus squares Neptune January 5 and then conjuncts Saturn on the 8th. To complicate things, Mercury also squares Mars in Scorpio while Mars conjuncts the moon on January 5th.
On January 7th Jupiter turns stationary/retrograde while in Virgo. Jupiter in Virgo is not a "happy to see me" sign, especially while Saturn is in Sagittarius.
Overall, I expect the stock market to rise into January 5th despite the 16 TD top on Dec 29 + 2 TD's. Mercury retrograde brings out the "Bermuda Triangle" effect in the stock market and will be with us until January 25th. Ideally, the 16 TD low is due near another moon low and that is when the moon enters into Sagittarius or Sagittarius/Capricorn on January 7/8. But don't forget the Bermuda Triangle effect. We may not see a final low for this expected move down until January 15-19 where the moon enters into Aries/Taurus or up to 6-7 TD's past the 16 TD low. Our next two Bradley turns are due January 13 and 18/19. We have other cosmic/cycle turns due 1/9, 1/13-14, 1/17-18, and then 1/19-20.
We are in the area for a 100 TD low +/- 15 TD's from the August 24th low. January 4th is 90 TD's from August 24 when accounting for two half and three full Holidays. The exact 20 week low is due on January 19. I fully expect the SPX to tag the 2090 area in the next two TD's. Downside targets are hard to guess right now, but 130-150 points or greater might be on the table from next week's expected top.
Friday exhibited a marginal advance/decline figure compared to the percentage decline. Usually, this means strength is coming. Last Monday saw a horrible advance/decline only to see the market bounce back, (which is unusual) so one never knows in this crazy market environment what to expect.
This past year, the stock market continually threw curve balls at me and often times had me second guessing myself. The average hedge fund lost 3-4%, so I consider myself fortunate to have nice gains on the books, especially trading NUGT and DUST.
As far as the mining sector is concerned, I was expecting a pull back early last week, but the normal cycles changed on me to a late week low forcing me to the sidelines. The indicators change from positive to negative (and back again) on a dime lately, so no real trend may be observed. For the most part, this is the way the stock market acted all year.
Normally, when Mercury turns retrograde, the Precious Metals change direction. The beginning of the week shows perhaps some bullish action coming for GDX as Mars enters Scorpio, but I'll wait for a break out before buying. In this market, I am loathe to hold very long.
Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer,
is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info
BluStar Market Timer offers auto-trading for those who don't have the time or inclination to trade their own accounts.