Stock Market Bottoming, But Bear Still Growling

By: Brad Gudgeon | Mon, Jan 18, 2016
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Indications suggest a stock market which is currently oversold and bottoming short term, but still has a long way to go to finish this bear. In fact, I believe we could see the SPX fall as low as the 940-950 area by October of this year as we enter the final innings of the crash phase of the 8 year commodity cycle. Gold and especially the gold miners are struggling even though we are showing positive COT figures.

The charts below show the SPX and GDX and where I believe we may go in the short term:

S&P500 Index 4-Hour Chart
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Market Vectors Gold Miners 60-Minute Chart
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Last week saw a series of 3 astro-trines that saw the stock market rally only to sell-off again in a choppy week. GDX has pretty much seen the same kind of action. Another trine is due tonight, so any positive action may again see some selling. Mercury (retrograde) is also translating the Uranus/Pluto square this week between January 20-22, so we could see an attempt to rally into mid week, only to sell-off again into late week. Overall, it looks to me that we attempt a rally into and around the FED meeting. Whether we make it to 2021/25 SPX this go round is unknown. Eventually, over the next 2 months, I think we may. In any case, 1960 SPX looks attainable this month.

We are in the area of the 100 trading day low and potentially may see sideways action throughout the February/March period (a bear flag) before falling hard again into June where the next 100 TD low is forecast to nest.

 


Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info

BluStar Market Timer offers auto-trading for those who don't have the time or inclination to trade their own accounts.

 


 

Brad Gudgeon

Author: Brad Gudgeon

Brad Gudgeon
BluStar Market Timer
Blog
eaglesoveramerica.com

BluStar Market Timer Investment Philosophy: The stock market is currently in a technical Elliott Wave Bear Market Rally. It has been exhibiting A-B-C type waves instead of the normal 5 Waves since the market topped in 2000. According to "The Original Works of R.N. Elliott", we are due for a move down to about the S&P 500 442/443 area in the next few years. In my opinion, this is no longer a buy and hold market, but a traders' market. We mainly swing trade the market with funds and ETF's, but otherwise trade according to the market's disposition and to the traders' discretion. For the year 2014, BluStar Market Timer is rated #1 according to Timer Trac. http://www.blustarmarkettimer.info

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