Elliott Wave Patterns Predict a Heck of a Ride Ahead!

By: Enda Glynn | Fri, Mar 31, 2017
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EURUSD

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EUR/USD 30-Minute Chart
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EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart
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EUR/USD Daily Chart
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My Bias: short in wave 3 blue.
Wave Structure: downward impulse wave 1, 2 blue
Long term wave count: lower in wave 3 blue
Important risk events: EUR: Spanish Manufacturing PMI. USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Good evening and happy Friday to you all!

The downside bias has now bee firmly established in EUSUSD,
In Monday nights analysis, I spelled out the reasons this market should fall,
And since Monday night, the price is down 240 points to todays low.

The action today has extended to the downside after a slight sideways correction, now labelled wave '4' green.
wave 'i' pink will complete soon, a likely target is 1.0640, the next support level.
The price should embark on a counter trend rally from there in wave 'ii'.
With 1.0760 forming major resistance.

Overall, the bearish scene seems set from here for EURUSD.
And this market should continue to the downside in a resumption of the bear market.
in the end we will tell tales to our kids and laugh,

of the time when the Europeans tried a single currency against all the best advice!


GBPUSD

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GBP/USD 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart
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My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure:  continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: Manufacturing PMI. USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Cable turned higher in an extended complex flat correction to the upside.
Wave 'a' has three internal moves, wave 'b' has three internal waves, and wave 'c' looks to be tracing out five waves up to complete.
This fits the 3,3,5 corrective wave structure.

Wave (iii) brown should begin early next week,
A drop below 1.2432, wave 'b' pink, will indicate the market has turned back down again.

Wave (iii) brown has a large downside potential, so it is time to focus on this market.
Any declines early next week will indicate wave (iii) has begun.
The price must not cross above 1.2615 for the immediately bearish wave count o remain valid.


USDJPY

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USD/JPY 30-Minute Chart
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USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart
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USD/JPY Daily Chart
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My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: Tankan Manufacturing Index. USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The continued rally off recent lows has added weight to the bullish case,
But it has also shaken up the short term wave count slightly.

I can now count a complete leading diagonal impulse wave off the low at 110.10
Five internal waves within wave (i) green, each taking a three wave form.

The decline off todays high at 112.20 should trace out three waves in a corrective wave (ii)
that wave is either complete at this evenings low or will extend again to create a more complex correction.
Early action next week is critical here, as we may have a bullish higher low completed soon.


Dow Jones Industrials

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Dow 30-Minute Chart
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Dow 4-Hour Chart
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Dow Daily Chart
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My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The market did not reveal anything new to us today regarding which short term wave count is the correct one.
Either way this market looks set to decline significantly sooner rather than later.

I am leaning towards the alternate wave count right now,
But early action next week should clear this up.

The low at 20409 is critical to the future path of this market,
And in turn, the larger economy.
Remember a bear market in stocks will begin 6 months to a year before the general economy turns down.

For Monday, watch the high of the previous wave 'a' red at 20592, a break of that high might be enough to turn this market for the final time.


Gold

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Gold 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Gold 4-Hour Chart
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Dow Daily Chart
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My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI.

I have taken a more bullish stance on GOLD this evening and adopted the alternate wave count all together.

It looks as if the market has now bottomed in wave (ii) blue and we can expect the price to rally significantly in wave (iii).
Todays action off the 1239.65 low looks impulsive and should develop into a five wave structure in wave 'i' brown.

1239.65 is now key support in the short term, and it should hold.
The 4hr RSI has now turned back up above the centreline again in a bullish sign.
For early next week watch 1239, and the creation of another higher low in wave 'ii' brown.
Key resistance is still 1264.

Thats all for this week,
hope you all have a great weekend.
See you all on Monday evening.

 


 

Enda Glynn

Author: Enda Glynn

Enda Glynn
bullwaves.com

Enda Glynn

I class myself as an Elliott wave trader now, but that's not how I started out though! It took me a long time and a whole lot of pain, to finally understand what drives the price and how to use Elliott Wave correctly!

I have been trading for years and I have tested every trading system and strategy under the sun! I used to pick entry points at random based on emotion or news events or something I heard on TV! It did not take long to destroy my capital! I have blown out my account balance before, and I had to start again,

from scratch!

Believe me, I am well acquainted with failure in trading! Im sure that the above scenario is pretty familiar to you too. We have all been there. About 10 years ago I discovered The Elliott wave Principle and its method of market analysis. Since then, I have spent years learning, testing and trading, using the wave principle as the backbone of my analysis. I even went to college to study macroeconomics and econometrics. I graduated with honours degree back in 2012. The financial market knowledge and statistical edge I gained after my degree added another level to my trading. The difference in my trading approach using the wave principle, compared to before, is like night and day.

The price started to move "my way" more and more often. The wave model, offers me a lens to view market action through, which no other form of analysis can do. Elliott wave analysis, helps me answer four key questions when I am contemplating a trade:

• What direction the price is trending.
• How far is this trend likely to go.
• Where can I enter a trade with the best risk reward ratio.
• And most importantly, at what point am I definitely wrong?!

The wave principle helps me improve my trade entry, tighten up my money management and in turn increase profitability. Seeing the waves unfold before your eyes is a very rewarding experience, It is almost like peering into the future! That is how the wave principle helps my trading, and that is why the wave principle will improve your trading. It took a long time to finally master Elliott Wave Principle. After over a decade of hard work, research and learning I can call myself an expert in the field. I regularly contribute to major trading communities at FXStreet, Forex Factory, Traders Planet. I am a chief Elliott Wave analyst at HumbleTraders.

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