• 309 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 309 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 311 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 711 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 716 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 718 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 721 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 721 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 722 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 724 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 724 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 728 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 728 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 729 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 731 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 732 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 735 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 736 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 736 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 738 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Real Men Trade the Long Bond

Thursday's auction will mark the resumption of issuance of longer-dated treasuries.

It is worth a general comment, particularly as the coupon is expected to be around 4 ½%. Low coupon bonds with long maturities are volatile, which some traders find daunting.

In 1779, Samuel Johnson observed: "Claret is the liquor for boys; port is for men; but he who aspires to be a hero must drink brandy."

These days, heroism is found in martinis and the long bond. Some twenty years ago, there was an article along the lines of "Real Men Trade Long Bonds". We would still go along with this and observe that the ten-year note, like Chardonnay, is for boys.

Most of the fashion in the shorter maturities has been due to Europe, which merits some review. Over the past 100 years, Europe's political and consequent financial instability made it a rare accomplishment to have a liquid money market, let alone a liquid market for long-dated issues. Perhaps when Europe abandons its dreadful and endless experiment in socialism (Moscow on the Maastrich), a big liquid market for long maturities will develop.

This could take a decade or so when eventually trading the shorter maturities will be relegated to those who have just reached the drinking age.

Of course, we all know that the bigger bang from the trading dollar is obtained from the lowest coupon with the longest maturity. In this regard, British Consols with a 3% coupon and perpetual term are ideal. We'll have to do some thinking about a perpetual "zero".

Canada used to have a 3% "Perp", but the "Federales" repudiated their obligations by forced redemption. With a bureaucracy dedicated to lowering interest rates, having a 3% issue outstanding when the long yield was at 19% (1981) was just too embarrassing.

Financial turmoil could soon increase corporate long rates, but after that the next bull market for long governments in the senior currency could take the yield down to 3%. In which case, the Consols or a 4 ½% long treasury would be a macho performer.

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment