The good news is:
• The rate of decline for the major indices has diminished and we are entering a period of modest seasonal strength.
Short term
Momentum indicators can identify a rhythm in the market that is not otherwise apparent. The first chart shows the Russell 2000 (R2K) in red and momentum of the ratio of new highs to new highs + new lows of the component issues of the R2K.
The indicator is rising and will probably peak about the end of next week.
Intermediate term
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows on an inverted Y axis in blue. The Y axis for new lows is inverted so that increasing new lows move the indicator downward (up is good).
New lows dropped to a low of 88 on Wednesday then rose to 105 on Friday. You should be careful as long as the number of new lows remains above 70.
The next chart covers the same period as the one above and shows a 5% trend (55 day EMA) of NASDAQ downside volume (DV). Like the chart above, DV is plotted on an inverted Y axis. It is encouraging to see the indicator rising a little faster than the OTC index.
The next chart should help you contain the enthusiasm generated from the previous chart. It shows a 4% trend of total NASDAQ total volume plotted on a conventional Y axis. In the past week total volume has declined sharply which probably accounts for most of the upward move in DV.
Seasonality
Next week is the last 5 trading days of June during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.
The tables below show daily returns for the OTC from 1966 - 2002 and S&P 500 (SPX) from 1930 - 2002 during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.
There was a bad period from 1966 to 1982 that lowered the averages, but the past 20 years as well as the period prior to 1966 has been modestly positive
Report for the last 5 days of June
The number following the year represents its position in the presidential cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
| OTC Presidential Year 2 | ||||||
| Day5 | Day4 | Day3 | Day2 | Day1 | Totals | |
| 1966-2 | -0.82% 5 | -0.34% 1 | -0.49% 2 | -1.21% 3 | -0.96% 4 | -3.81% |
| 1970-2 | -2.69% 3 | -0.34% 4 | -1.10% 5 | -1.27% 1 | -1.15% 2 | -6.56% |
| 1974-2 | -0.29% 1 | 0.60% 2 | -1.36% 3 | -1.84% 4 | -1.13% 5 | -4.03% |
| 1978-2 | -0.99% 1 | -0.30% 2 | 0.29% 3 | 0.38% 4 | 0.27% 5 | -0.36% |
| 1982-2 | 0.15% 4 | -0.37% 5 | 0.35% 1 | -0.32% 2 | 0.45% 3 | 0.26% |
| Avg | -0.93% | -0.15% | -0.46% | -0.85% | -0.51% | -2.90% |
| 1986-2 | 0.53% 2 | 0.83% 3 | 0.16% 4 | 0.16% 5 | 0.49% 1 | 2.17% |
| 1990-2 | -0.80% 1 | -0.06% 2 | 0.33% 3 | 0.76% 4 | 0.41% 5 | 0.65% |
| 1994-2 | -1.01% 5 | 1.28% 1 | -0.09% 2 | 0.28% 3 | 0.28% 4 | 0.74% |
| 1998-2 | 1.79% 3 | -0.77% 4 | 0.33% 5 | 1.16% 1 | 0.19% 2 | 2.71% |
| 2002-2 | 1.34% 1 | -2.49% 2 | 0.38% 3 | 2.09% 4 | 0.27% 5 | 1.60% |
| Avg | 0.37% | -0.24% | 0.22% | 0.89% | 0.33% | 1.57% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 2 1966 - 2002 | ||||||
| Averages | -0.28% | -0.20% | -0.12% | 0.02% | -0.09% | -0.66% |
| % Winners | 40% | 30% | 60% | 60% | 70% | 60% |
| MDD 6/30/1970 6.40% -- 6/28/1974 4.27% -- 6/30/1966 3.76% | ||||||
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2005 | ||||||
| Averages | -0.11% | -0.14% | 0.05% | 0.14% | 0.27% | 0.22% |
| % Winners | 47% | 42% | 53% | 63% | 67% | 63% |
| MDD 6/30/1970 6.40% -- 6/29/1965 4.79% -- 6/28/1974 4.27% | ||||||
| SPX Presidential Year 2 | ||||||
| Day5 | Day4 | Day3 | Day2 | Day1 | Totals | |
| 1930-2 | 0.77% 3 | 2.35% 4 | -0.95% 5 | 0.45% 6 | 2.81% 1 | 5.45% |
| 1934-2 | 2.36% 2 | -0.30% 3 | 0.50% 4 | -1.70% 5 | 0.00% 6 | 0.86% |
| 1938-2 | 2.15% 6 | -1.14% 1 | -0.09% 2 | 4.18% 3 | -1.37% 4 | 3.73% |
| 1942-2 | 0.12% 4 | 0.12% 5 | 0.24% 6 | 0.36% 1 | 0.24% 2 | 1.09% |
| 1946-2 | 0.22% 1 | -0.71% 2 | -0.17% 3 | 1.55% 4 | 0.22% 5 | 1.11% |
| 1950-2 | -5.38% 1 | -1.10% 2 | 1.12% 3 | -3.70% 4 | 1.43% 5 | -7.64% |
| 1954-2 | 0.45% 4 | -0.21% 5 | 0.27% 1 | 0.51% 2 | -0.75% 3 | 0.28% |
| 1958-2 | -0.38% 2 | 0.25% 3 | 0.47% 4 | 0.13% 5 | 0.76% 1 | 1.23% |
| 1962-2 | -0.44% 1 | -0.25% 2 | 0.54% 3 | 3.44% 4 | 0.62% 5 | 3.92% |
| Avg | -1.11% | -0.40% | 0.45% | 0.39% | 0.46% | -0.22% |
| 1966-2 | 0.09% 5 | -0.58% 1 | -0.48% 2 | -0.95% 3 | -0.14% 4 | -2.05% |
| 1970-2 | -1.06% 3 | 0.07% 4 | -0.74% 5 | -0.79% 1 | -0.23% 2 | -2.75% |
| 1974-2 | 0.26% 1 | 1.47% 2 | -1.47% 3 | -1.55% 4 | -0.36% 5 | -1.65% |
| 1978-2 | -1.30% 1 | 0.40% 2 | 0.44% 3 | 0.18% 4 | -0.04% 5 | -0.32% |
| 1982-2 | -0.28% 4 | -0.63% 5 | 1.03% 1 | -0.05% 2 | -0.54% 3 | -0.47% |
| Avg | -0.46% | 0.15% | -0.24% | -0.63% | -0.26% | -1.45% |
| 1986-2 | 0.72% 2 | 0.77% 3 | -0.08% 4 | 0.35% 5 | 0.50% 1 | 2.26% |
| 1990-2 | -0.88% 1 | -0.07% 2 | 0.87% 3 | 0.70% 4 | 0.11% 5 | 0.74% |
| 1994-2 | -1.52% 5 | 1.02% 1 | -0.28% 2 | 0.35% 3 | -0.75% 4 | -1.18% |
| 1998-2 | 1.20% 3 | -0.32% 4 | 0.35% 5 | 0.47% 1 | -0.41% 2 | 1.28% |
| 2002-2 | 0.36% 1 | -1.67% 2 | -0.27% 3 | 1.76% 4 | 0.00% 5 | 0.18% |
| Avg | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.12% | 0.72% | -0.11% | 0.66% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 2 1930 - 2002 | ||||||
| Averages | -0.13% | -0.03% | 0.07% | 0.30% | 0.11% | 0.32% |
| % Winners | 58% | 42% | 53% | 68% | 42% | 63% |
| MDD 6/29/1950 8.88% -- 6/28/1974 3.35% -- 6/30/1970 2.73% | ||||||
| SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2005 | ||||||
| Averages | -0.16% | -0.05% | -0.08% | 0.13% | 0.14% | -0.02% |
| % Winners | 45% | 43% | 51% | 59% | 59% | 50% |
| MDD 6/29/1950 8.88% -- 6/29/1939 5.93% -- 6/30/1931 4.32% | ||||||
Conclusion
Intermediate term there is little reason to be optimistic, however, the recent modest strength should last another week helped by seasonally positive bias.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday June 29 than they were on Friday June 23.
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