• 310 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 310 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 312 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 712 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 716 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 718 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 721 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 722 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 723 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 724 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 725 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 729 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 729 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 730 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 732 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 732 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 736 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 736 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 736 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 739 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Michael Pento

Michael Pento

Pentoport

Michael Pento produces the weekly podcast "The Mid-week Reality Check", is the President and Founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and Author of the book "The…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The Inflation Lovers' Spat

Two lovers of the notion that inflation can cure everything that ails an economy recently squared off in a battle over who adores counterfeiting the most. Paul Krugman, who probably has a statue of Al Capone at his bedside, chided Ben Bernanke in a New York Times Magazine article for his unwillingness to raise the Fed's inflation target in order to reduce the unemployment rate. The recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics penned an article titled "Earth to Ben Bernanke" on April 24th. In it he encouraged Bernanke to embrace the idea that more money printing can save the world by writing, "Higher expected inflation would aid an economy."

Bernanke addressed Krugman's comments at last week's FOMC press conference. His dovish response directed towards Krugman's commentary was, "The question is, does it make sense to actively seek a higher inflation rate in order to achieve a slightly faster reduction in the unemployment rate...the view of the committee is that that would be very reckless." While it is commendable that Bernanke doesn't publicly admit he wants to send inflation higher than it already is; the question remains why he believes that higher inflation can cause even the slightest reduction in unemployment.

What strikes me the most is that neither the Nobel Prize winner nor the Chairman of the Federal Reserve had the sagacity to completely repudiate the idea that inflation can in any way reduce the unemployment rate. Even a cursory look at the data throughout economic history proves that inflation is a destroyer of jobs. All they would have to do is to look at the most salient periods of inflation that occurred over the last 40 years and see how negatively it affected the unemployment rate.

From 1971 (the year Nixon broke the gold window) through 1974, the annual percentage change on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 4.4% to 11.0%. According to Krugman and Bernanke, this should have sent the unemployment rate crashing. However, the unemployment rate increased from 6.1% at the end of 1971 to 7.2% in 1974. And since the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, that figure increased even further to 8.2% in December of 1975.

In 1977 the CPI was 6.5% and it shot all the way up to 13.5% in 1980. Just as it did in the early part of the decade, the unemployment rate increased yet again to 7.2% in 1980 and hit 10.8% by the end of 1982! Finally, the other salient increase in the rate of inflation occurred between 1986 and 1990. The annual percentage change of inflation in '86 was 1.9;, that shot up to 5.4% in 1990. The unemployment rate started that period at 6.6% and climbed to 7.3% at the end of 1991.

Therefore, I have to ask our dear Fed Chairman and Nobel Prize winner where the evidence is that inflation causes people to find work. In reality, it's the exact opposite that occurs. Inflation robs the middle class of their purchasing power and sends them onto the government dole. Inflation also destroys investment in an economy because savers have no idea what interest rate is necessary to charge in order to profitably lend out their money over an extended period of time. And inflation causes tremendous economic imbalances, as capital is diverted into ephemeral asset bubbles instead of being allocated in a more viable manner.

If Krugman and Bernanke were correct in believing inflation has a positive influence on the workforce, Zimbabwe and Argentina would both be paragons of how to achieve full employment. The truth is that a high unemployment rate is the simply the result of a weak economy. And an economy can suffer through a recession while experiencing either inflation or deflation. But when an economy experiences a significant increase in the rate of inflation, it nearly always ends up with an unemployment rate that goes along for the ride. We can only hope that central bankers in the developed world assent to that principle very soon. Unfortunately, the ECB, BOJ and Fed continue to believe a positive rate of inflation must be maintained at all costs. That is one of the reasons why a high rate of unemployment has now become a structural condition in most of the developed world.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment