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Expect the Unexpected!

By: Gordon Long | Monday, March 21, 2016

Don't Ever Underestimate What Central Bankers & Government Will Do.

Full Report: Download pdf
23 Pages, 34 Graphics

Falling Progits and Weakening Markets

The full report explores falling corporate profits, slowing cash-flow levels and weakening market breadth.

Global Earnings estimates


Liquidity Again a Problem

We have been witnessing the disturbing trend of falling Fund Flows and slowing Private Credit growth.

Annual Liquidity gauge

The rolling 3 month asset purchases by the global central banks gives us some insight into another development going on below the surface. Having become addicted to liquidity injections by the central banks in the post financial crisis period, the liquidity growth decline (since the US TAPER program was implemented) is clearly being felt globally. Particularly so in the Emerging Markets. The forced selling by the Emerging Markets due to negative current account balances and currency pressures has significantly aggravating a tenuous situation. Richard Duncan at Macro Watch does a stellar and unique job of analyzing global liquidity pressures (shown to the right).


Credit Cycle Has Turned

Credit Cycle

Falling Cash Flows and EBITDA coupled with high corporate debt levels, are a central reason for the recent credit cycle reversal. This trend reversal is not about to be reversed as credit cycle reversals are normally infrequent and can be expected to take years to reverse again. It is a process that is about resetting debt to manageable and serviceable levels. It normally forces out the mal-investment created by easy credit. It is extremely worrisome in this particular credit cycle reversal because of the size of debt & mal-investment, leverage outstanding and the degree of collateral impairment underpinning the debt pyramid.

Reduced corporate dividend payouts are a sure sign that the credit cycle has reversed which we are now witnessing. The number of dividend reductions has now far surpassed 2008. It is almost 100 more than at the outset of the Great Recession, a time when the implosion of Lehman caused equity markets to plummet in the later stages of the third quarter.

We see reduced corporate cash-flows as a central driver in the current environment - an Energy & Commodity Collapse with attendant soaring global risk and "Risk Off" as the new approach to hedging because of the current degree of high market correlation.


What We Expect

We are watching closely the 200-400 DMA Death Cross for confirmation of an Intermediate term top and of lower lows ahead.

200-400 DMA Death Cros

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Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

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