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Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

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Key Date

1/12/2009 10:38:40 PM

Tuesday is one of our key dates that we identified at the beginning of the year.


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Stock Barometer Analysis

The barometer remains in Buy Trend Mode. An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows and as long as that continues, we'll delay any sell signal. But it's getting close.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.


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Stock Barometer Cycle Time

Tuesday is day 32 in our Up Cycle.

The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.


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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.

The date I reference above isn't a key reversal date, it is a 35/105 day trading cycle. It's suggesting a reversal on Tuesday. How it will work with our 1/20 date is a move up into 1/20.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.


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Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.

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The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.


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Supporting Secondary Indicator

We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.


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Summary of Daily Outlook

We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the short term selling to end Tuesday and a rally into the inauguration.

We have our 35 day trading cycle chart above (a keeper if you want to refer to the dates later). 1/13 is the next date and while I didn't think the markets would pull back this much, the Qs remain in an uptrend - thus we remain long.

I still see an increase in fear that will support the rally. We keep an eye on this fear meter on a 5 day basis and it is approaching an extreme.

If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.


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Regards,

 

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