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1/20 Fast Approaching

1/14/2009 9:31:25 PM

Support Test on the Qs


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Stock Barometer Analysis

The Qs moved down to our support level, leaving us in Buy Support Mode. I'll go into more detail on this with my chart of the Qs below. It"s difficult to see "support" on the chart above which uses the close only.

The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.


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Stock Barometer Cycle Time

Tomorrow is day 34 in our Down Cycle.

The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.


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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates

2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.

Wrong Answer. I was looking for a move higher into 1/20. Unfortunately that's now obviously unlikely. I'll discuss what I'd like to see happen in the next few days below.

My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.

2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.


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Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.

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Summary of Daily Outlook

We remain in Buy Support Mode.

We were looking for the market to move higher into 1/20 - the inauguration - in a buy the rumor, sell the news type of rally. However, as each day this week progressed, it proved us wrong.

That being said, this Friday is options expiration. Expirations often align with reversals. And the following Monday is a trading holiday (and I'd love a day off), followed by the Inauguration on Tuesday. And Tuesday is also the 20th, our next key reversal date.

So I see it like this. Preferably a hirami type day on Thursday. A nothing day on Friday. Holiday on Monday and the bounce on the Inauguration.

The extent of the bounce is the next issue. But we'll cross that when we get there.

If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.


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Regards,

 

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