We're going to see US$200 oil at some point, it may be by 2013. It's a sad fact but the world is running out of known oil. Oil will make a big comeback
I realize that some would prefer to make a little bit of money in oil right now, but remember, Jim Rogers says he is the "worst market timer in the world". He is a long-term investor and his statements regarding oil in recent months imply he is already acquiring stakes in the commodity, as well as hard asset producers involved in production and distribution.
Chris Vermeulen provides some great analysis for possible short-term upward moves for oil in his recent article Which Shines More: Gold, Silver or Crude Oil?:
Crude Oil looks like it could really pop, as it has been under heavy sell pressure for a long time. Not only that but because oil is in the new, and individuals around the world are now following it, it stands a chance for a really big bounce/ rally soon. The daily oil trading chart is telling us we could have a buy signal any day now if risk is under 3%.
Owning Canadian Energy Trusts allows investors to fill up with a smile, as rising pump prices are more than offset by higher dividends.
Marc Faber, of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report suggests oil may be ready for some upward movement:
I do not think that gold will rise a lot in the near future because compared to the CRB, a broad index of commodities gold is very overvalued as compared to nickel, copper and oil. In the near-term, industrial commodities which are more oversold than the stock market two months ago could rally somewhat. I would position myself as a trader in some commodities.
Gerald Celente, CEO of Trends Research, sees the US slipping into another Great Depression-like event and collapse of the system as we know it.
There's limited supply in terms of the people controlling the spickets. And I believe that oil prices, when they hit a certain point, the suppliers of the product are going to lower supply.
Mr. Celente's interview is from November of 2008. Suppliers of oil world-wide are reducing supply as we speak. This interview is also worth listening to because Mr. Celente correctly predicted exactly what Russia would do this winter in regards to natural gas to Europe.
In addition to a general consensus from some of the leading forecasters of the last few years, we have other potential issues that can arise in the very near future:
- The price of oil drops even lower, from the $40 range today, to $20 - $25 in the short term. I'd say this would be enough to convince OPEC and Russia to really pull back on the supply to force prices through the roof. They are not happy with America right now, as we have shaved off over $100 per barrel... We're talking billions in revenues for oil producing nations who are going into deficits because of the collapse of oil.
- A military strike on Iran could also send oil sky high. I believe this to be a probable event in the next 12 - 18 months. If you remember, at one point, Iran was only a 'few years' from having the capability to build nuclear war heads. Guess what? a few years is right about now...
- We may be in a deflationary cycle, but many analysts are predicting a reinflation of the economy in the next 6 - 24 months. the money the Fed has printed thus far hasn't hit main street, but when it does, we should see prices in consumer goods, oil and other commodities accelerate in the upward direction.
I can see oil at $70 per barrel by at least mid-2010, perhaps much sooner. And if the SHTF for any of the reasons noted above, we could easily see it bounce to its Summer 2008 high of $140.
Henrique Simoes suggests that buying and holding oil commodity futures may be a dangerous play right now.
My personal view is that the best thing to do right now is to avoid as much risk as possible. An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the price of oil could be a great investment vehicle - you reduce risk and closely follow the commodity itself. I like USO, the United States Oil Fund (chart), which tracks the price of sweet crude oil. Currently off almost $90 from its summer 2008 high of $119, this ETF is a great buy at $31 per share. The ETF has net assets of $2.5 billion and trades an average of 20,000,000 shares per day.