• 560 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 560 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 562 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 962 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 967 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 969 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 972 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 972 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 973 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 975 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 975 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 979 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 979 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 980 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 982 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 983 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 986 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 987 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 987 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 989 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Does a Down Moving VIX Always Mean That the Market Will Move Up?

As you are well aware, the market is often in conflict with opposing conditions.

Take the VIX and the S&P's Relative Strength for instance.

If you look at yesterday's VIX (Volatility Index), you would see that it appeared to be moving down with a nice lower tick. Then, if you looked at the S&P, it had a nice up tick that gave the appearance of a new short term move to the upside.

So, is this a nice, clean condition for a short term upside move?

One important indicator to consider is the Relative Strength ... especially when it appears to be in opposition.

The combination mix of movements with the VIX vs. the C-RSI is what is important ... not the VIX by itself. Below is a chart of the possible VIX/C-RSI combinations and their affect on the market:

So, let's look at today's VIX and C-RSI reading.

At the close yesterday, the VIX was moving down, and the C-RSI was NEGATIVE. If we look at the chart above, the affect on the market is traditionally neutral which gives the market a "sideways, trading range" condition.

What that means ... is that the market can go higher on the short term, but within the extremes of the trading range.

As long as the VIX is moving down, and the C-RSI is moving up while in Negative Territory, then the S&P will move up on an intra-day basis ... and do so within its trading range. If the VIX is moving down, and the C-RSI starts moving down, then this opposing force neutralizes intra-day up movement attempts.

"Trading Range" conditions are volatile and unstable conditions because there is no upside or downside trend in place. Instead, there are up an down moves within the upper and lower boundaries of the trading range.

FYI: What's a C-RSI? It is a version of the standard Relative Strength Index. On the C-RSI, a value of 50 is subtracted from the RSI so that the Relative Strength will "show a zero reading when neutral".

This allows one to easily see when the Relative Strength is positive or negative due to its position above or below the horizontal line.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment