4/4/2009 9:21:46 AM
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More Rally To Come! But for how long?
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Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer remains in Buy Mode, moving higher.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
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Stock Barometer Cycle Time
Monday will be day 19 in our Up Cycle.
The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.
Looking for a move higher into 4/8 and a retracement into 4/16 and a push higher into 4/27.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
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Spread Indicators
Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.
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OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)
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Supporting Secondary Indicator
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Summary of Daily Outlook
We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the market to move higher into 4/8 and retrace into 4/16, before a larger move higher into 4/27. When we have key reversal dates that are close to each other, they can lead to retesting and consolidation.
April may be an interesting month with a larger consolidation - but at the end of the day, I'm looking at something like what occurred in March of 2003, prior to a very large rally that lasted some time. So in as much as I'd love to see the market keep cranking here, it'd actually be better to see a larger retracement.
I'm thinking we may book some profits here - since our last Buy Signal has produced over 30% (Using Rydex Velocity or Qs on Margin). That's a pretty large gain - even for my system.
As for the system, there are certain market conditions that it will perform well in. You never know when those conditions will come, so it's good to take them when they come.
If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.
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Regards,
