• 313 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 314 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 315 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 715 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 720 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 722 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 725 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 725 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 726 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 728 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 728 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 732 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 732 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 733 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 735 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 736 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 739 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 740 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 740 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 742 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The Official Reggie Middleton Bank Stress Tests

As stated in my earlier posts, I have embarked upon stress tests for certain members of the Doo Doo 32 (As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo!) as well as other financial services and insurers/reinsurers that I have released analysis on. These stress tests use the published methodology issued by the government, and uses the government's assumptions for the optimistic case. I feel (actually, I know) the government's assumptions are much too rosy to be considered a prudent base case or pessimistic case scenario. See "More on Reggie Middleton's Bank Stress Testing" for the justification behind this line of thinking. Nouriel Roubini has been consistently more accurate in the call of the current downfall than the government's models, thus I feel it is most prudent to rely on his input for the base case scenario.

Below is the link for the stress test results of PNC Bank including the acquisition results of National City, an interesting taxpayer funded combination of two of the Doo Doo 32 (As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo!).

We have created 3 economic stress test scenarios with RGE Monitor's estimates as the base case, the Fed's base line assumption as optimistic case and a slightly direr (though still plausible) distressed scenario. The Fed's baseline assumptions are on an average higher than RGE's estimates by a factor of 1.33x while under the adverse case the macroeconomic assumptions are lower by a factor of 0.80x. We have used these factors to build optimist and adverse case scenarios.

Base Case - RGE Monitor
  2009 2010
GDP -3.4%  
Unemployment 10.0% 11.0%
Price Index -16.3%  
 
Our Optimistic case - Fed's baseline case
  2009 2010
GDP -2.0%  
Unemployment 8.4% 8.8%
Price Index -14.0%  
 
Adverse Scenario - L shaped recession
  2009 2010
GDP -4.9%  
Unemployment 11.5% 12.5%
Price Index -21.3%  
 
Factor sensitivity - Base case 1.00  
Factor sensitivity - Optimistic Case 1.33  
Factor sensitivity - Adverse case 0.80  

As per RGE Monitor HPI is expected to fall 44% over 2006 levels. S&P Case Shiller has declined 27% since then.

Jan-06 202.44
Current Index 146.40
  -27.7%

Previous PNC research:

PNC Report 050508 revised 2008-08-30 06:38:42 711.95 Kb

PNC Report_update final - Retail 2008-10-15 13:21:38 337.21 Kb

PNC Report_update final - Pro 2008-10-15 13:21:22 590.98 Kb

The PNC Stress Test Results

PNC Stress Test Retail 2009-04-13 02:11:08 323.51 Kb

PNC Stress Test Pro 2009-04-13 02:10:17 3.11 Mb

The Professional Version is 56 pages long and has roughly 60% of the output of my proprietary PNC model (there are some formatting issues with the pro addition due to the heft of the tables included). Below is a pasting to illustrate the contents and the amount of intellectual capacity that went into it. I will be releasing a similar stress test for every company that I have a financial interest in.

Pro Contents

Summary. 2
The Scenario Analysis. 4
Base Case - RGE Monitor. 4
Our Optimistc case - Fed's baseline case. 5
Adverse Scenario - L shaped recession. 6
Relative Value: Sum of the Parts. 7
Net Interest Income. 9
Interest Bearing Liabilities. 11
Non-interest Income. 12
Off Balance Sheet Items. 18
Business Segments. 18
Retail Banking. 19
Corporate and Institutional 24
PFPC. 25
The BlackRock Investment. 27
Relative Value: Consolidated. 35
Loan Portfolio. 37
Regulatory Ratios. 46
Charge-offs and Delinquencies. 47
FDIC Supporting Data, Tables, Charts and Graphs

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment