5/2/2009 8:15:56 AM
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Morning Traders! I love weekends because it gives me a quiet time to review my market data and draw more objective conclusions - than I would with the market open.
This last trade has been the largest WIN of our service history - and while it's not closed yet, we're getting very close to pulling the trigger. If you want to get that signal, I would love to have you back as a subscriber. We have many different ways to participate in a subscription and new services that we offer.
First, you can sign up for a basic subscription to our Daily Stock Barometer for only 24.95 per month:
Or, if you want to have the ability to chat with me (and a few other of our traders) you can sign up for a premier level subscription, where you get all of the newsletters written by me, including Market Chat, Stock Option Speculator, Explosive Stock Alert and the Daily Stock Barometer - all for only 69.95 per month.
Again, I'd love to have you back as a subscriber and if you haven't tried our service - or if you are not up 51% since March 10th, then this is a great time to start! -Jay D
Our next key reversal date (5/7) aligns with the stress test release. Things that make you go hmmm.
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Stock Barometer Analysis
The barometer remains in Buy Mode, as we're looking for the market to move higher into May 7.
The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Trend and support can override the barometer signals.
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Stock Barometer Cycle Time
Monday is day 38 in our Up Cycle.
The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position.
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Potential Cycle Reversal Dates
2009 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16, 4/27, 5/7, 6/8. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance.
With our next key reversal date aligning with the release of the stress test results, we are looking for the market to move higher into that date.
I've also added our next date, 6/8. This means to me that the next move should be a mid term move - and if we peak into May 7th, then we consolidate or retest or crash lower into 6/8.
My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here.
2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13, 9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
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Spread Indicators
Use the following spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'.
QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market.
Lynn T's 1-2-3 PLUS Alert
Provides buying and selling advice with 1/3 Index positioning for trends
use 2.5x Leverage and our advice as a hedge for your current portfolio.
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Bill West's Fat Pitch ETF Advisory
ETF Advisor trades a diversified portfolio of the hottest Exchange Traded Funds.
US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)
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OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO)
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Supporting Secondary Indicator
We daily monitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators that break down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us unique insight into the market. We feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook.
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Summary of Daily Outlook
As an FYI, we're up 51% in our last trade, using the rydex venture fund. Not a bad piece of work for 38 days. We're getting close to changing our position, so watch for our call.
We remain in Buy Mode, looking for the market to move higher into 5/7. If we get a peak into that date, we're moving lower for about a month.
Our analysis is as objective as we can get. We look at charts and indicators and tend not to try to read too much into what's happening in the market. It's either going to go up, down or sideways and it's not rocket science. However, periodically you will get buy the rumor and sell the news type action. I think a peak into May 7th will be bearish for the month of May.
However, there is a seasonally weak period that starts May first (for those of you who like to sell in May and go away until October). That means there is the potential for a selling reaction into May 7th (I wouldn't rule it out - I never rule anything out). So if we get that action, then I'd be bullish into the summer.
If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.
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Regards,
