• 9 hours Mexico Kickstarts War On Junk Food
  • 17 hours How America Could Go Green Right Now
  • 2 days Russian Prestige And American Politics: The COVID Vaccine Race
  • 2 days Is The Silver Rally Over Or Just Getting Started?
  • 3 days Alibaba-Backed Tesla Competitor Set To IPO In The U.S.
  • 3 days Emerging Economies Could Get Left Behind In Race For COVID Vaccine
  • 3 days Dead Malls Could Be Amazon’s Next Target
  • 4 days Unpacking Biden's Energy Plan
  • 4 days Russia Aims To Become World's Top Gold Producer
  • 4 days Global Tech Stocks On Edge Over Trump TikTok Ban
  • 5 days Cobalt Squeeze Threatens The Electric Vehicle Boom
  • 5 days COVID Has Sparked A Surge In Cybercrime
  • 6 days Precious Metals Bulls Still Have Plenty Of Room To Run
  • 6 days The U.S. Has The Tech To Go Green, But Will It Use It?
  • 7 days Massive Losses Force Russian Commodities Giant To Slash Dividends
  • 7 days Markets Up On Stimulus Hope
  • 8 days UK To Invest In Europe's First Geothermal Lithium Recovery Plant
  • 8 days TikTok Takes Center Stage In US-China Tech War
  • 9 days Are Semiconductor Stocks Overvalued?
  • 9 days Jobs Report Doesn’t Say Much Amid COVID Uncertainty
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Speculative Disaster

On February 28th in Panic Selling Will Lead to a Sharp Bounce we stated, "investors should be positioning themselves for a countertrend rally...We do not expect that this is the ultimate low, merely a level that will support a multi-month bounce. This reflationary bounce will be much stronger (and possibly last longer) than any other rally we have seen since October 2007. Its purpose is to put to rest the widespread fear currently in the market...This temporary bottom will support a sharp bounce into the fall."

As we will show, the stock market is currently extremely overvalued. As in 2007, we strongly advise liquidating equities. Reasons to sell two years ago included: an optimistic market, large insider selling, and low cash holdings in mutual funds. These three indicators are currently back to or above 2007 levels.

With regards to current sentiment, Investors Intelligence's newsletter survey shows optimism is back to peak levels. Likewise, The Daily Sentiment Index (shown below) shows that traders are more optimistic now (89% are bullish) than they were at the top in early October of 2007.

Insider selling is also back to levels not seen since the top. Similarly, the cash percentage of mutual fund holdings is close to historically low levels. Mutual fund managers are not worried about investors cashing out; instead mutual funds are receiving record inflows from the investment public. When the public rushes in, it's time to be rushing out. These esoteric characteristics, which assisted us in 2007, are warning of a significant top. It's as if the 2008 meltdown never happened.

"If only I'd followed CNBC's advice, I'd have a million dollars, provided I'd started with a hundred million dollars."- Jon Stewart

The Derivative Vanguard

As highlighted in Derivatives Say Bernanke Will Be Wrong, the residential mortgage index from Markit (ABX.HE), implied 'continuing large losses' of not only subprime but A-rated loans. With optimism eclipsing levels seen in late 2007, investors are once again blinded to risk, this time in the commercial mortgage market.

***More For Clients and Subscribers***

How quickly can it occur? In Canada, one real estate fund manager described their CMBS market as "vaporized."

Chinese Bear Market Is A Warning Signal

After its peak in October 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index fell roughly 70% last year. Zhang, a 59-year-old laid-off autoworker complains to the AP: "I have most of my money in the market, and now I feel so sad, I want to cry...and the government said they will protect small investors, but actually our interests have been hurt most." The Chinese market after a fierce rally has recently cratered 20% in one month. U.S. investors should heed the warning of Zhang: "I used to have money to buy a two-bedroom apartment, but now I can only afford a toilet."

What's Next

As we explained last July, "We look forward to selling near the next bear market rally peak." We suspect this is it. Let us state again, "Therefore we hope you are able to shrug off the need to follow the crowd, look at the evidence rationally, and protect your assets." We have set ourselves up for another rough fall. The decline should be fast and furious.

At Lamont Trading Advisors, we provide wealth preservation strategies for our clients. For more information, contact us . Our monthly Investment Analysis Report requires a subscription fee of $40 a month. Current subscribers are allowed to freely distribute this report with proper attribution.

***No graph, chart, formula or other device offered can in and of itself be used to make trading decisions. This newsletter should not be construed as personal investment advice. It is for informational purposes only.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment