It looks as though the multi-month correction in precious metals is coming to an end and very soon, we are going to get a major move. If the bull-market is still intact, then gold should break above US$1,000 per ounce within a few weeks. However, if the price of gold fails to do this, we could see a sharp decline in bullion and precious metals mining stocks. Put simply, if the price of gold fails to climb past US$1,000 per ounce and instead, it falls below US$920 per ounce, it will be a negative omen. At that point, our suggestion would be to immediately sell precious metals and related stocks.
Yes, the macro-economic is wildly bullish for precious metals and we have been bulls since 2001. But this has now become a very crowded trade and in order to sustain the bull-market, gold must trade above US$1,000 per ounce. Today, most precious metals investors are positioned for an explosive rally and if gold fails to climb to new highs very soon, we may get forced liquidation from the frustrated bulls. Under this bearish scenario, the price of gold and other precious metals could plummet and this is the reason why we are suggesting that you exit your 'long' positions if gold breaks below US$920 per ounce. Although the weekly chart for gold looks like a gigantic 'inverse head & shoulders' bottom formation, it could also turn out to be a massive double top. Remember, gold's chart pattern looks eerily similar to copper; just before it staged a spectacular decline last year. So, we will have to wait and see how things play out for precious metals.
In our view, the direction of gold's breakout will depend on the US Dollar Index, which is currently trading above a major support level. Yesterday, the US Dollar Index managed to break out of its declining trend and this is good news for the greenback. Over the following days, if the US Dollar Index closes above the 80 level, it will be a big positive for the American currency and a drag on precious metals. Conversely, if the US Dollar Index breaks below the 77 level, it will usher in the anticipated rally in precious metals. So, in the near-term, we suggest that you keep a close eye on the US Dollar Index as movements over here will determine the fate of gold and silver.
In summary, if gold fails to reach new highs and on the contrary, if it breaks below US$920 per ounce, we urge you to liquidate your holdings in precious metals. Moreover, if the US Dollar Index breaks above the 80 level, we advise you to convert your cash reserves to the American currency.
This strategy may seem flippant to some of our readers but given all the uncertainty in the economy, we do not want to dismiss any possibility. More importantly, we want to ensure that we are prepared for all eventualities. Remember, Wall Street is littered with the graves of those who got married to one market forecast and failed to smell change. Instead, we prefer to be vigilant and will continue to adjust our investment positions based on market action.
The above Update was sent out to subscribers of Money Matters on 2 September 2009.
