• 4 days How To Invest In The Cybersecurity Boom
  • 6 days Investors Are Patient With Unprofitable Giants
  • 8 days Wells Fargo Back In The Scandal Spotlight Once Again
  • 10 days 5 Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On This Year
  • 11 days As Auto Giants Flail, Look To Chip Stocks For Gains
  • 12 days Central America Is Ready For The Bitcoin Hustle
  • 14 days China’s Video Game Restrictions Unlikely To Slow Down Booming Industry
  • 15 days Top Performing Stocks As Inflation Fears Grow
  • 16 days US Airline Stocks Take A Beating On New EU Restrictions
  • 17 days This IPO Could Open Sustainable Fashion Floodgates
  • 18 days Crypto Crime Nets Another $2B Fraudster
  • 20 days This Week’s Hottest Meme Stocks
  • 21 days Why World Markets Should Be Watching Germany Closely
  • 23 days Could ‘Cultured’ Meat Rival The Plant-Based Megatrend?
  • 25 days ‘Easy Money’: Crypto Is Still Attracting Newbie Investors
  • 27 days Foreign Syndicates May Have Stolen Up To $400B In COVID Benefits
  • 28 days Gold Jumps Above $1800 Ahead Of Jackson Hole Summit
  • 28 days International Banks Blacklist Afghanistan Following Taliban Takeover
  • 30 days China’s Tycoons Are Getting A Serious Reality Check
  • 31 days U.S. Cannabis Space Heats Up With Telling Tilray Acquisition
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Technical Market Report

The good news is:
 • The number of new lows remains insignificant.
 • The NASDAQ new high indicator continued to move upward ina slightly down week.
 • In April the week prior to witching (the coming up week),historically, has been pretty good.

After a strong move like we had in the 8 trading days prior to last week a pause is to be expected. Although there was weakness everywhere except energy, nothing stood out as extraordinary. The NYSE new high indicator is well above the levels required by the most conservative no sell filters and the NASDAQ new high indicator is heading upward.

The intermediate term outlook is positive.

The short term outlook is more difficult to determine. Most of the short term indicators peaked a week ago at very high levels. The chart below is typical. It shows a McClellan Oscillator (difference between 5% and 10% trends) of advancing and declining issues on the Russell 2000 (R2K). The indicator hit a record (for the past year) high a week ago and had nowhere to go but down. Previous near records have been followed by a modest decline then another advance.

For the short term seasonality is positive. The tables below suggest Monday is likely to be down, Friday neutral and Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, pretty strong.

Witching report for April.
Witching is futures and options expiration the 3rd Friday of the month.
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.

R2K
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur *Fri*
1989-1 -0.11% 0.52% 0.10% 0.08% 0.44%
1990-2 -0.99% -0.08% 1.02% -0.78% -0.57%
1991-3 -0.02% 0.89% 0.78% -0.63% -0.65%
1992-4 -1.64% -0.24% 0.15% -0.15% -0.08%
1993-1 -0.45% -0.36% 0.34% 0.11% -0.42%
1994-2 -0.70% -1.12% -1.42% 1.31% 0.50%
1995-3 0.45% 0.10% 0.35% 0.31% 0.18%
1996-4 0.73% 0.74% 0.33% 0.46% 0.46%
1997-1 -0.19% 0.64% -0.16% 0.06% 0.38%
1998-2 0.37% 0.53% -0.05% -1.26% -0.95%
1999-3 -2.18% 0.71% 2.70% 0.53% 0.67%
2000-4 -2.76% 4.37% -0.98% 2.13% 2.36%
2001-1 -1.21% 0.28% 2.25% 1.02% 1.34%
2002-2 -0.53% 1.99% -0.80% -0.04% -0.23%
2003-3 0.42% 1.52% 0.97% -0.68% -0.96%
Avg -0.59% 0.70% 0.37% 0.17% 0.17%
Win% 27% 73% 67% 60% 53%
 
S&P 500 (SPX)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur *Fri*
1989-1 0.12% 1.43% 0.37% -0.31% 1.12%
1990-2 -1.21% -0.21% 0.51% 0.27% -1.14%
1991-3 0.21% 1.69% 0.73% -0.51% -1.10%
1992-4 -1.41% 0.02% -0.11% 0.44% -0.63%
1993-1 -0.33% -0.53% -0.33% -0.94% -0.55%
1994-2 -0.83% 0.02% -0.13% 1.53% -0.25%
1995-3 0.87% -0.15% 0.11% 0.17% 0.23%
1996-4 0.44% 0.57% -0.22% 0.42% 0.09%
1997-1 0.82% 1.48% 1.17% -0.23% 0.60%
1998-2 0.08% 0.27% 0.34% -0.97% -1.04%
1999-3 -2.24% 1.29% 2.29% 1.70% -0.14%
2000-4 -0.33% 3.33% -1.11% 0.27% -0.85%
2001-1 -1.50% -1.22% 1.59% 0.47% 1.50%
2002-2 -0.76% 2.34% -0.20% -0.14% 0.06%
2003-3 -0.18% 2.17% 0.84% -0.83% -1.38%
Avg -0.42% 0.83% 0.39% 0.09% -0.23%
Win% 40% 73% 60% 53% 40%

I expect the major indices will be higher on Friday April 16 than they were on Thursday April 8.

I was overcome by exuberance last week and overlooked the extremely overbought condition of the market. All of the major indices were down, but all less than 1%.

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment