• 323 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 323 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 325 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 725 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 730 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 732 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 735 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 735 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 736 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 737 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 738 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 742 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 742 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 743 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 745 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 746 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 749 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 750 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 750 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 752 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Asset Class of the Decade: Gold

In the end as an investor, it's all about the scoreboard. For those who aren't traders, allocation to the correct asset classes is critical to long-term returns. Following are the returns for the S&P 500, the U.S. Dollar (using the Dollar Index as a proxy), Commodities (using the Continuous Commodity Index [$CCI] as a proxy) and Gold. These returns ignore dividends, yields, and expenses, which are important concepts over the long-term and make this a less than ideal comparison. You can plug in whatever figures you think are appropriate and make your own comparison(s) if you're so inclined.

How is it possible that a hunk of metal has returns comparable to the stock market over the past 15 years? Does this surprise you? Are you familiar with the Dow to Gold ratio as a long-term concept? If not, perhaps it is not too late to familiarize your self with this concept, especially since the Dow to Gold ratio will drop to 2 at a minimum and may well drop below 1 this cycle.

Here's an up-to-date log scale chart of the Dow to Gold ratio over the past 5 years:

The long-term chart (20 year log scale candlestick chart) of Gold shows a strong bull market with no trend line breaks over the past 8 years and with aligned and rising 50 and 200 week moving averages:

The bull market in stocks and commodities is no longer in force using basic chart analysis. Things are always subject to change, of course, but with a trailing P:E ratio of 150 (based on reported earnings, not the garbage operating earnings spewed by CNBC bulltards) and a very weak global economy, stocks and commodities will likely not resume a secular bull market any time soon. This is also the message in their long term charts (following are 20 year log scale charts of the S&P and everyone's favorite commodity, oil [$WTIC]):

Since the Dow to Gold ratio will get back to 2 (at a minimum), those who sell their general stocks and buy physical Gold will be able to trade their Gold for at least 5 times the number of stocks within the next decade. This is equivalent to a 400% gain in stocks over a decade or less without taking the risk of owning stocks! The Gold bull market is alive, well, and not close to being done in time or price.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment