• 742 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 742 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 744 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,144 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,149 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,151 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,154 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,154 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,155 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,157 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,157 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,161 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,161 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,162 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,164 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,165 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,168 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,169 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,169 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,171 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Case Shiller CPI At Negative 5.1%

Case-Shiller CPI is formulated by substituting the Case-Shiller housing index for Owner's Equivalent Rent in the CPI. For a complete description of the reasons and methodology, please see What's the Real CPI?

The chart and commentary below is courtesy of my friend "TC" who writes:

CS-CPI continues to fall albeit at a less rapid pace and measures -5.1% YOY. Meanwhile the government's CPI-U also continues to fall at a slower pace and measures -1.5% YOY. The divergence is to due to the government's housing metric of Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) continuing to show price increases (+1.7% YOY) vs. Case-Shiller data showing price decreases (-13.3% YOY).

Since the Case Shiller housing market peak in June 2006, OER is up +7.7%, while the Case-Shiller index is down -30.9% - an amazing 3860 basis point divergence!

CS-CPI YOY has now fallen for 11 consecutive months and 14 of the past 18. Meanwhile the government's CPI-U YOY has fallen for 6 consecutive months.

Thanks "TC".

With rental prices and food prices starting to drop, I expect to see CPI-U (the official CPI) to continue to decline. Moreover, with the coming end of the $8,000 housing tax credits for new home buyers and a phase-out of treasury monetization by the Fed, a reversal in the housing index is likely.

It's highly unlikely that home prices have bottomed in the bubble areas as well as most major cities, even though some select markets, especially Florida areas that have been hammered mercilessly, may be in a bottoming process now.

Dr. Housing Bubble outlines a solid case for "the bottom is not in" viewpoint in Shadow Inventory Case Study. Please take a look. It's a good read.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment