The good news is:
• The blue chip indices closed at a recovery high on Friday and most of the other major indices are within 1% of their recovery highs.
Short Term
From its mid July low the NASDAQ composite (OTC) rose 13% in 12 consecutive up days (close to a record).
From its early September low it rose 9.1% in a little over 2 weeks.
Last week it was up every day rising 4.5%.
In July I incorrectly identified the blast off as a blow off. Many of the conditions that existed in July exist now.
The charts below cover the past 150 trading days (from the March low). The 1st chart shows the OTC in blue and the NASDAQ Advance decline line (OTC ADL) in green. The OTC ADL is a running total of NASDAQ declining issues subtracted from advancing issues. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
The OTC ADL has lagged behind the index since the late September high. However the pattern is similar to the mid July and early September lows.
The next chart shows the OTC in blue and a 5% trend (39 day EMA) of NASDAQ total volume in orange.
Volume rose during September's rally, was little changed during July's rally and declined a little last week. It seems odd that the biggest rally in 70 years has generated so little volume.
The next chart is similar to the one above except is shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and the total volume indicator calculated from NYSE data in black.
NYSE volume has been weaker than NASDAQ volume.
Intermediate term
Last week, new highs picked up enough to assure us the rally is likely to continue.
The chart below shows the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green. OTC NH hit a new recovery high on Friday.
The chart below is similar to the one above except it covers the past 5 years. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each year. The indicator usually deteriorates ahead of a top and that is not happening now.
The next chart covers the last 150 trading days showing the SPX in red and the indicator NY NH calculated from NYSE new highs in green. This indicator is even stronger than OTC NH.
The next chart shows the SPX and NY NH over the last 5 years.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of October during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle.
The tables show the daily return on a percentage basis for the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of October during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. OTC data covers the period from 1963 - 2008 and SPX data from 1953 - 2008. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. The market traded 6 days a week prior to 1953 so that data has been ignored.
The average returns over all periods have been modestly positive.
Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of October.
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
| OTC Presidential Year 1 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1965-1 | 0.13% | 0.39% | 0.37% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 1.19% |
| 1969-1 | 0.65% | 1.26% | 1.27% | 0.83% | 0.36% | 4.37% |
| 1973-1 | -0.85% | 0.01% | -0.42% | 0.14% | 0.38% | -0.74% |
| 1977-1 | 0.09% | 0.11% | -0.81% | 0.15% | -0.06% | -0.51% |
| 1981-1 | 0.01% | 0.33% | -1.30% | 0.22% | 0.21% | -0.53% |
| 1985-1 | 0.89% | 0.25% | 0.60% | 0.55% | 0.05% | 2.33% |
| Avg | 0.16% | 0.39% | -0.13% | 0.38% | 0.19% | 0.98% |
| 1989-1 | -1.35% | -0.23% | 0.73% | 1.62% | -0.03% | 0.75% |
| 1993-1 | 0.44% | 0.63% | 0.84% | 0.83% | 0.26% | 2.99% |
| 1997-1 | 0.18% | -0.53% | -0.54% | -1.38% | -1.93% | -4.20% |
| 2001-1 | -0.42% | 1.52% | -4.40% | 0.39% | 1.12% | -1.78% |
| 2005-1 | 0.26% | -0.69% | 1.71% | -1.11% | 0.68% | 0.86% |
| Avg | -0.18% | 0.14% | -0.33% | 0.07% | 0.02% | -0.28% |
| OTC summary for Presidential Year 1 1965 - 2005 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.00% | 0.28% | -0.18% | 0.23% | 0.10% | 0.43% |
| Win% | 73% | 73% | 55% | 82% | 73% | 55% |
| OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2008 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.45% | -0.09% | -0.30% | 0.52% | -0.19% | 0.39% |
| Win% | 62% | 50% | 47% | 67% | 54% | 52% |
| SPX Presidential Year 1 | ||||||
| Year | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thur | Fri | Totals |
| 1953-1 | 0.00% | -0.38% | 0.47% | 1.14% | 0.79% | 2.02% |
| 1957-1 | 0.73% | 1.04% | -0.82% | -1.65% | -0.79% | -1.47% |
| 1961-1 | -0.28% | 0.03% | 0.50% | 0.35% | 0.04% | 0.65% |
| 1965-1 | 0.57% | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.16% | 0.21% | 0.58% |
| 1969-1 | 1.06% | 1.22% | 0.02% | 0.68% | -0.11% | 2.86% |
| 1973-1 | -1.25% | 0.13% | -0.20% | 0.04% | 0.19% | -1.09% |
| 1977-1 | -0.10% | -0.01% | -1.16% | 0.31% | -0.38% | -1.33% |
| 1981-1 | -0.20% | -0.35% | -1.64% | 0.77% | -0.43% | -1.86% |
| 1985-1 | 1.13% | -0.16% | 1.02% | -0.17% | -0.33% | 1.50% |
| Avg | 0.13% | 0.16% | -0.39% | 0.33% | -0.21% | 0.02% |
| 1989-1 | 2.76% | -0.49% | 0.18% | 1.57% | 0.01% | 4.02% |
| 1993-1 | 0.12% | 0.05% | 0.08% | 1.16% | 0.57% | 1.99% |
| 1997-1 | 0.12% | 0.23% | -0.47% | -1.09% | -1.16% | -2.37% |
| 2001-1 | -0.15% | 0.69% | -1.86% | -0.79% | 0.46% | -1.65% |
| 2005-1 | 0.30% | -1.00% | 1.50% | -1.50% | 0.15% | -0.56% |
| Avg | 0.63% | -0.11% | -0.12% | -0.13% | 0.01% | 0.28% |
| SPX summary for Presidential Year 1 1953 - 2005 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.37% | 0.07% | -0.17% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.23% |
| Win% | 62% | 50% | 50% | 57% | 57% | 50% |
| SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2008 | ||||||
| Avg | 0.47% | -0.05% | -0.33% | 0.26% | -0.20% | 0.15% |
| Win% | 64% | 36% | 45% | 59% | 47% | 57% |
Money supply (M2)
The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. Money supply growth picked up last week.
Conclusion
The market jumped off an oversold low last week. In the previous 2 occurrences (July and September) it continued upward for another week.
I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday October 16 than they were on Friday October 9.
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Thank you,
