• 679 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 679 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 681 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,081 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,086 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,088 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,091 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,091 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,092 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,094 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,094 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,098 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,098 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,099 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,101 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,102 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,105 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,106 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,106 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,108 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Rydex Market Timers: Reminds Me Of My Own Trading

In a show of doing the same thing over and over again or as I like to call it - hitting your head on the wall until it hurts - the Rydex market timer continues to anticipate a bounce in the market. This reminds me of my own market follies -- only kidding!!

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel. When the money market fund is flush with cash, one can assume that the Rydex timers (like market participants in general) are fearful of market losses. From a contrarian perspective, these are good buying opportunities. When the amount of assets are low (like now), these market timers are all in; one should be on the lookout for market tops. There is little buying power left. As of Tueasday's close, the amount of assets in the Money Market Fund was at its lowest value since the bull run began in March, 2009.

Figure 1. S&P500 v. Rydex Money Market/ daily

Figure 2 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds versus the amount of assets in the leveraged and bearish funds. Not only do we get to see what direction these market timers think the market will go, but we also get to see how much conviction (i.e., leverage) they have in their beliefs. Typically, we want to bet against the Rydex market timer even though they only represent a small sample of the overall market. As of Tuesday's close, the assets in the bullish and leveraged funds were greater than the bearish and leveraged by 2.38 to 1; referring to figure 2, this would put the green line greater than red line. When this ratio is greater than 2 the rally has generally stalled as noted by the maroon vertical lines.

Figure 2. Rydex Bullish and Leveraged v. Bearish and Leveraged/ daily

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment