Guy Lerner

Technical Take

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• Investor Sentiment: Happy New Year!

  Published 31 December 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Have A Happy, Healthy and Prosperous 2013! The "Dumb Money" indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of…

• Investor Sentiment: This is For Certain

  Published 23 December 2012 | viewed 0 times

  In a span of 4 weeks, investors (as represented by the "dumb money" indicator) have gone from a state of despair to one of euphoria.…

• Investor Sentiment: Serious Headwinds

  Published 16 December 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Last week, the "smart money" turned bearish to an extreme degree, and this week, they continue as sellers of equities. The "dumb money" continue to…

• Investor Sentiment: More Issues

  Published 09 December 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Add extreme selling by corporate insiders to last week's list of worries. This "smart money" is selling to a degree last seen February 18, 2011.…

• Investor Sentiment: This is an Issue

  Published 03 December 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Ok, this is becoming an issue with this market. When looking at the sentiment data, we note 3 things. One, the bearish extremes in investor…

• The Stupidity and Folly of the Crowd: Your Guide to the Fiscal Cliff

  Published 29 November 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff, fiscal cliff. Those two words are all over the print and electronic media. It is hard to escape unless you are…

• Investor Sentiment: A Gift

  Published 25 November 2012 | viewed 0 times

  In last week's "gift" to investors, the SP500 gained 3.5% making up all of the losses that it had sustained for the month of November.…

• Investor Sentiment: Be On Alert for the Same Old Same Old

  Published 18 November 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The SP500 is down 3.5% in November, a month where we are told the bulls always do well, and the index is down 7.2% since…

• Investor Sentiment: I Wish I Had a Nickel...

  Published 11 November 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I wish I had a nickel for every time I have been told that technical analysis doesn't work or that TA doesn't work because Ben…

• Investor Sentiment: Same Story, Different Week

  Published 04 November 2012 | viewed 0 times

  It's the same story, but a different week. Investors were buying the "Ben Bernanke has your back story" only 8 weeks ago, but now that…

• Investor Sentiment: Pray for Bearish Extremes

  Published 28 October 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Investor sentiment hit a bullish extreme when the Federal Reserve announced QE3 7 weeks ago. Oops! Since then the equity market has done nothing but…

• Chart of the Week (Bonus!)

  Published 23 October 2012 | viewed 0 times

  We couldn't just have one "Chart of the Week" this week. We need two. Figure 1. Copper/ weekly Larger Image Our bonus "Chart of the…

• Investor Sentiment: Unwinding

  Published 21 October 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Investor sentiment hit a bullish extreme when the Federal Reserve announced QE3 6 weeks ago. Sunny skies and clear sailing ahead were proclaimed by all…

• SPY: Bull Trap Remains

  Published 19 October 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the S&P500 Depository Receipts (symbol: SPY). Figure 1. SPY/ weekly Larger Image Focus on the gray oval. The…

• Investor Sentiment: In a Vacuum

  Published 14 October 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Investors who have put their faith in Ben Bernanke have no one left to turn to. The SP500 is down only 3% or so from…

• Bond Model Turns Positive

  Published 13 October 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Our fundamental bond model has turned positive, and we are bullish on US Treasury bonds. Since 2010, strength in the bond market (and in our…

• Investor Sentiment: Remains Extreme

  Published 08 October 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The "dumb money" continues to remain bullish while the "smart money" is bearish, but less so than the previous week. Prices on the SP500 broke…

• Investor Sentiment: Repudiation?

  Published 30 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The repudiation by the markets of Federal Reserve policy is almost complete. Economic numbers continue to deteriorate, but from the beginning, Fed policy has not…

• Bull Trap?

  Published 26 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Most market participants considered QE3 a game changer. With the Fed printing money forever, the bullish crowd somehow determined that nothing could go wrong. Ooops!!…

• Investor Sentiment: Lack of Catalysts

  Published 22 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Last week's game changer seems to be spot on as investors adjust to a world where there isn't the constant speculation of what the Fed…