• 700 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 700 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 702 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,101 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,106 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,108 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,111 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,112 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,112 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,114 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,114 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,118 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,119 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,119 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,122 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,122 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,125 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,126 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,126 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,128 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The Technical Take: Dollar Index

It's Monday, and there is no better place to start the week with the only asset that has mattered for the past 8 months - the Dollar. Although Friday's job report brought a spike in the Dollar Index, the down trend remains intact. However, the likelihood of the downtrend ending leading to a counter trend rally or consolidation is now as high as it has been in months.

Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index. This is the same chart I have been showing since June, 2009 - prior to the Dollar Index unraveling. Positive divergence bars are marked with pink markers inside the gray ovals. A weekly close over 75.94, which is the high of the most recent positive divergence bar, would suggest that the downtrend in the Dollar Index is ending.

Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly

Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bear (symbol: UDN). This is the inverse of the Dollar Index. The indicator in the bottom panel searches for negative divergence bars, and we have had a cluster of these over the past 13 weeks. As discussed recently, this can be an ominous topping pattern or a spring board to higher prices - i.e., a blow off market top where prices really accelerate higher. A weekly close greater than 28.70 would suggest higher prices for UDN, which means a much lower Dollar Index. A weekly close below 28.25 and the down trend in the Dollar is over for now.

Figure 2. UDN/ weekly

My take is this: in all likelihood, this is the end of the down trend for the Dollar Index.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment