• 848 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 849 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 850 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,250 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,255 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,257 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,260 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,260 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,261 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,263 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,263 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,267 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,267 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,268 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,270 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,271 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,274 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,275 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,275 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,277 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Time Bomb

Warren Buffett also frets on this.

Not bad, for government work.....

The BIS derivative survey reveals that, as of Dec 2003, the global derivatives market amounted to $234 trillion of notional contracts, of which some 75% - or $175 trillion - are interest rate-related (and 80%, or $142 trillion, of those OTC).

Risk - much of it unquantifiable and much of it, no doubt in the hands of those who either can't understand it at all, or who are too reliant on flawed models, which are usually oblivious to non-linear, network effects - now stands some 2.7 times higher than it did when LTCM blew up in 1998.

Over the year, the 1% Fed, the 0% BOJ, the 2% ECB and the 0-point-something SNB - in the pursuit of the harmful myth of 'macro-economic stability' - managed to encouraged a massive 41% jump in outstandings - a climb fully 3 ½ times faster than the change in OECD total GDP, which was estimated to have been $3.12 trillion (a figure itself flattered greatly by a decline in the USD which helped take 'real' growth from a paltry 2% to a nominal USD rate of 11.9%).

It also means that the Global Casino Economy racked up a whisker under $22 in interrelated risk transactions for every $1 of estimated growth in its Physical counterpart in 2003 - surely testimony to a financial system spinning wildly out of control.

Perhaps even more incredibly, that $234 trillion now amounts to $36,750 - or close to 10 months' income for the median household in the US - for every last one of the estimated 6.3-odd billion men, women and children on the planet, many of whom would be lucky to earn that sort of money in the course of three whole generations!

O tempora! O mores!

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment