George Soros has been quoted recently as saying gold is in a bubble. Now that's an interesting comment but based upon what?
Who are we to question the comments of one of the wealthiest men on the planet?
And don't you love it when the 'big name players', like Soros, Jim Rogers, Roubini, Marc Faber, Bob Hoye, Pamela & Mary Anne Aden and David Nichols have differing opinions?
How can the average investor make an intelligent decision when even these 'big boys' can't agree? Well, for me, I love it and say, let's ask a few more questions and then look at some charts.
What do 'they' mean by a bubble?
When I hear the word bubble I immediately think of a parabolic move. A market that has gone straight up and this could be for a period of weeks, months or years.
Parabolic moves and thus bubbles in my opinion were seen in the NASDAQ market into 2000, the oil futures spiking to $147, the parabolic rise in the housing stocks and the Japanese Nikkei, etc.
Another great bubble chart is that of the Japan Nikkei 225. Look at that monster rise into January 1990 and rate of the rise. Now this was a parabolic rise.
This next chart on Light Crude Oil shows the big bubble-parabolic move from approximately $10 to $147, (almost 15 times) from 2000 to the top in June 2008. Chart courtesy of www.sharelynx.com
Now let's look at gold:
Gold: where is the parabolic move? There is none. Look at this beautiful monthly chart below on gold from the low in 2001. This is a chart of beauty and it is not a chart of a bubble.
Could we be in the early stages of a bubble, yes, but we are no where near to a peak and/or a parabolic move. Look for yourself.
Multiple for the Final Move: | ||||
Market (See Charts Above) | Beginning of | Top | Multiple | |
NASDAQ | 1,000 | 5,200 | 5.2 | |
Nikkei | 7,000 | 39,000 | 5.6 | |
Toll Brothers | 10 | 57 | 5.7 | |
Crude Oil | 10 | 147 | 14.7 | |
Homestake Mining | 100 | 425 | 4.2 | |
Taking a conservative multiple of 5 from the above table and using a conservative starting point of 700 for gold, we have the possibility of a peak of at least 3,500. If we use 1,000 as our beginning point, we then have a target of at least 5,000. | ||||
When we start to see gold go parabolic, rising day after day and everyone in the world getting excited and joining the party, then we will know gold is in a bubble. We believe that gold's big move up with be a moon shot like this chart of Homestake Mining from 1932 to 1934. Our challenge then will be to exit before the masses and we see the strong possibility of this event happening within the next 18 months.
We would therefore be in the camp with Jim Rogers, Bob Hoye, David Nichols, Marc Faber and Pamela & Mary Anne Aden. Up is the direction and the remaining question is how high?
We believe investors are being given the rare possibility of a once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity, yes, and a parabolic move in gold. The question is what will you do with it and do you need some assistance?
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