"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 15 hours Will Regulatory Rollbacks Make Banks 'Too Big To Fail?'
  • 16 hours Elon Musk’s $2.6 Billion Tesla Challenge
  • 17 hours Tech Giants Could Be First Victims Of U.S. Trade War
  • 18 hours Dow Gains Despite Fed’s Rate Hike
  • 19 hours The Biggest Threat To Chinese Oil Futures
  • 20 hours Spending Bill Could Cause U.S. Debt To Soar To 99% Of GDP
  • 22 hours Precious Metals Slide Ahead Of Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
  • 23 hours China’s Soft Power Grab May Be Bad News For Emerging Economies
  • 2 days The Secretive Wall Street Firm Betting On Bitcoin
  • 2 days ‘Data Is King’: The Oil Industry’s Next Most Valuable Resource
  • 2 days Google Invests $300 Million To Combat Fake News
  • 2 days Zuckerberg Dodges A Bullet As Facebook Loses Billions
  • 2 days Tesla Tumbles As Investors Lose Patience
  • 2 days Are Alt-Coins On The Verge Of A Break Out?
  • 2 days What Should Gold Investors Expect From The New Fed Chair?
  • 2 days Who Will Pay For Trump's $60 Billion China Tariffs?
  • 3 days Vladimir Putin’s Mysterious Fortune
  • 3 days Cryptos Resist Social Media Crackdown
  • 3 days The Death Of Dodd-Frank
  • 3 days Bitcoin Bounces Back Ahead Of G20 Meeting
Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point

Trump’s trade war appears to…

What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?

What Killed Toys ‘R’ Us?

In another blow for America’s…

Is Barrick Gold Close To Finding A Bottom?

Is Barrick Gold Close To Finding A Bottom?

Barrick gold has been a…

Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI's 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via…

More Info

How Might Gold, Silver and T-bonds Behave in a Bear Market?

Can precious metals and U.S. Treasury bonds fall together? You bet.

Enjoy this excerpt from Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI resource, Independent Investor eBook (Now With 6 New Chapters!). Please see details on how to read the entire eBook below.

Gold, Silver and T-bonds
(Robert Prechter, February 2009)

This section will offer a novel viewpoint. Can you imagine a scenario under which precious metal and Treasury bond prices would fall together? Most people would think such an event would be impossible. After all, as we showed in our study of March 2008, bonds do well during deflationary recessions, and gold goes up during inflationary booms. Shouldnt they be contra-cyclical?

Look at Figure 3 and realize that gold and T-bonds have been going up together for an entire decade.

Major Tops in Two Major Markets - 30-Year US Treasury Bonds and Gold

This is completely normal behavior according to our liquidity theory of market movement at the end of credit bubbles and their aftermath, as proposed in Conquer the Crash back in 2002. If gold and T-bonds can go up together for ten years, they certainly can go down together as well.

[Here is a scenario that] is likely to occur later, but since it could happen now, let's review it. ...U.S. Treasuries cannot hold up forever, particularly given the drunken-sailor approach to fiscal management that Congress has practiced over the past century and which has accelerated madly in the past eight years and even more outrageously since last September. At some point, Uncle Sam's credit rating will begin to slip. According to the price of credit-default swaps on U.S. Treasury debt, it is already slipping.

When the monopoly issuing agent of dollar-denominated debt -- the Federal government -- begins to lose credibility as a debtor, the U.S.'s great experiment in fiat money will end. Read it here first: The U.S. government is the borrower of last resort. When it can't borrow any more, the game will be up, because the government's T-bonds are the basis of our "monetary" "system."

What will happen when creditors begin to smell default? They will demand more interest. At first, it might not be much: 4%, 6%. But as the depression spreads, spending accelerates, deficits climb and tax receipts fall, the rate that creditors demand might soar to 10, 20, 40 or even 80%. In 1998, annual bond yields in Russia reached over 200% before the government finally threw in the towel and defaulted.

Prices of outstanding bonds, of course, collapse when yields surge. As rates rise, many people will sell other investments to lend at these "attractive" rates. In such a situation, T-bonds would be the primary engine of falling prices, as they suck value from other investments. So, this is another way that gold and bond prices can go down at the same time. ...

Finish reading this groundbreaking and powerful 118-page eBook now, free! Here's what else you'll learn:

  • Why Buy and Hold Doesn't Work Now
  • How To Invest During a Long-Term Bear Market
  • The Biggest Threat to the "Economic Recovery" is ...
  • The Errors in "Efficient Market Hypothesis"
  • How To Be One of the Few the Government Hasn't Fooled
  • MUCH More!

Keep reading this free 118-page eBook now -- all you need to do is create a free Club EWI profile.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter