| TREND INDICATOR | MOMENTUM INDICATOR | COMMENT (Click link to see chart) | |
| Long-term | 3 of 3 are BUY | ||
| Intermediate | 2 of 3 are SELL | 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL | Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode |
| Short-term | 1 of 1 are SELL | 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL | SPY ST Model is in BUY mode |
| ATTENTION | *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. |
| BULLISH | 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead. |
| BEARISH | 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low. CPCI too high, top? 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. *04/20 Market Recap: Record high Climax Buying. *04/20 Market Recap: Weekly Bearish Engulfing could mean a top. |
| CONCLUSION | *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, although the primary sell signal is not yelling yet, but sometimes NYSI and BPSPX sell signals did work, so be careful here. |
| SPY SETUP | ENTRY DATE | STOP LOSS | INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE signals are HERE TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
| ST Model | 04/29 L | 1.5xATR(10) | Be careful, don't get too bullish, the uptrend is weakening. |
| Reversal Bar | *Stopped out of long position with loss. | ||
| NYMO Sell | |||
| Non-Stop | |||
| VIX MA ENV | *Stopped out of long position with loss. | ||
| OTHER ETFs | TREND | TRADE | COMMENT - *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. |
| QQQQ | UP | ||
| IWM | UP | *Could be Bearish 1-2-3 formation breakdown, target $69.91. | |
| CHINA | DOWN | ||
| EMERGING | *? | Price overlap, so could be a failed bearish 1-2-3 formation, the trend is unclear. | |
| EUROPEAN | DOWN | *Stick Sandwich, so more down? | |
| CANADA | UP | *Lots negative divergence and I don't like the BPTSX bearish crossover. | |
| BOND | *? | *Breakout, the trend could be changed to up from down. | |
| EURO | DOWN | *Black bar, so pullback? | |
| YEN | DOWN | ||
| GOLD | UP | 4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there's a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. | |
| OIL | ? | ||
| ENERGY | UP | ||
| FINANCIALS | *? | Price overlap, so could be a failed bearish 1-2-3 formation, the trend is unclear. | |
| REITS | UP | ||
| MATERIALS | UP |
SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac:
- First trading day in May, Dow up 9 of last 11.
- Friday before Mother's day, Dow up 9 of last 14.
The chart below is the May Seasonality (courtesy of sentimentrader) for SPX and NDX.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06
The next potential turn date is 05/06 (±) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.
1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), there're 2 cycle due date the next and next next week, 05/03 and 05/10, together with the above mentioned 05/06, my guess is that they could mean a cycle top. Yes, I've double checked to make sure I didn't write it wrong, it is a cycle top. For reasons please refer to the intermediate-term session below.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD OR THE MARKET COULD BE TOPPED
Maintain the forecast for roller coaster ahead (see 04/26 Market Recap for more details). Upgrade the warning level today, as there're good chances that an intermediate-term top is imminent. The "witness" is the weekly Bearish Engulfing pattern formed this week. The charts below highlighted in red ( only Bearish Engulfing formed at 10 week high are listed) since 1988, all SPY weekly Bearish Engulfing bars. Total 11 cases, only 2 cases the market kept going higher and higher thereafter. In another word, there're 82% chances, the market has topped (or very close).
I think some of you may remember my "rule" for Bearish Engulfing: A Bearish Engulfing usually means bullish the next bar (in our case means bullish the next week), the chart below is the back test summary - sell short at Friday's close, buy cover at the next Friday's close, bears got only 36% chances.
If however hold until next next week, buy cover at the next next Friday's close then bears got 82% chances. So the conclusion is bullish next week, but not so bull friendly after the next week.
Below is another reason for not very pleasant ahead. Climax Buying (where a stock makes a new 52 week high but then closes below the previous week's close.) among SPX stocks reached a record high this week. See what happened after all those vertical lines. Again it doesn't necessarily mean a red week the next week, but certainly a strong sign to at least raise a cautious flag.
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE GREEN MONDAY BUT MORE PULLBACKS AHEAD
I mentioned 2 reasons for a green Monday in the Friday's After Bell Quick Summary. Here's the 3rd reason: 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX rose more 19% on Friday, from the back test summary below, buy at close sell at the next day's close, bulls got 81% chances.
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, however on a little bit longer than the next Monday, here's another top sign, see thick vertical red lines for what happened when CPCI closed above 2. At least it means a short-term top.
