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Throw Mamma From the Train

What a day in the market. That's what happens when market sentiment is so widely one sided. I was glued to my stock screener all day making sure to manage gains and risk. There has to be some options traders today that made a small fortune.

A couple of days ago, I wrote a blog, which I stated, "I believed the stock market would repeat recent history and break below its 50 day MA and widen out the Bollinger Bands confirming more downside". Just two days later, the market gets SPANKED. It also goes to confirm my call for some kind of a top in April 2010 in several of my last stock market updates (blogs) at www.safehaven.com. I also recommended it was time for gain protection strategies, which has also been proven to be the correct strategy. This market is about managing risk first, making money second.

Below is the chart of the market. I suggested two days ago, "I did not have my chips on the long side of the market". In fact it's been a fun week of shorting stocks. I have closed most of this week's shorts when the market was down 600 points this Thursday, April 6th. During a 7 minute span the market went from down 600 to down 900+ and back to down to 600. I was lucky it was a day I could sit in front of my computer and ride it like a jockey and getting off at my choosing.

s&P500 6-Month Chart

I like to take gains after such a big drop because it's such a rare price move, and I don't want to get caught in a potential short term over sold bounce. There's no sense being greedy. One of the technical reasons for cashing out my gains is when we were down 600 points we were so far below the Bollinger Bands, a bounce of some kind had to be coming near term. I put one short on at the close, and that's all I want to do, anything could happen out of the gate tomorrow.

Below is a longer time frame daily chart. The market easily corrected blow it's prior peak, a bearish note. And while intraday, it fell below trend support, it closed right at it. A more discerning close below trend support and the February lows is a larger bearish signal.

S&P500 1-Year Chart

Given today's pricing and the widening of the Bollinger Bands, I can't believe this correction is over. That doesn't necessarily mean we have to take out today's intraday lows. We could move in a more sideways or range bonds fashion over time.

I'm expecting tomorrow to be quite entertaining. While I can't imagine traders/investors wanting to hold positions into the weekend, I can also see the global puppets saying what ever it takes to calm the situation. Either way, we should see a wide range tomorrow, probably nothing like today, but above recent average days.

Hope all is well.

 

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