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Reggie Middleton

Reggie Middleton

Who am I? Well, I fancy myself the personification of the free thinking maverick, the ultimate non-conformist as it applies to investment and analysis. I…

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As We Have Warned, the Fissures Are Widening in the Spanish Banking System

As of 6:40 am, US futures are down 15 points, with the MSM blaming the nationalization of the Spanish bank CajaSur.

The Bank of Spain seized troubled CajaSur with 500 million euro ($624 million) in funding to keep it solvent. The move pushed the Euro lower and left investors concerned about the country's fiscal health.

The nationalization comes at a time of rising concerns over Spanish credit-worthiness, despite the European Union's decision earlier this month to put together a safety net for distressed European economies.

On Sunday, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriquez Zapatero told a group of socialist mayors, "No one can doubt at any time that Spain is a strong country and an economic power that will meet its obligations and pay debts." CajaSur's failure is the second in Spain since the start of the global financial crisis.

The bank -- based in the southern city of Cordoba -- has 13 billion euros ($16.35 billion) in loans and holds 0.6 percent of the total assets in the Spanish financial system.

I have made our position on Spain clear through a complete forensic review of the state's finances for subscribers:

Spain public finances projections_033010. An excerpt from this subscription document (subscribers, reference page 2) shows the euphoric, yet highly unrealistic optimism upon which Spain has built its fiscal austerity projections.

Spain Financial Projections

As suggested in the document, if one refers to the blog post Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!, you will find that not only has Spain apparently fabricated a fairy tale of potential prosperity based upon the projections of the IMF and EC, but the IMF and EC have been nothing but fairy tale projections themselves.

I have been bearish on the Spanish banking system since January of 2009 (reference Reggie Middleton on the New Global Macro - the Forensic Analysis of a Spanish Bank ), and after a trip to the Costa del Sol by way of Málaga during the boom times are shortly thereafter, the reasons should be most obvious.

We now have a rash of new Spanish bank and sovereign research which has returned between 300% and 400% over the last few months.

Option Trade

Needless to say, as the situation in the EU deteriorates upon the widespread dissemination of the knowledge that BoomBustBloggers have been trading off of for quarters now, I feel the options will spike in value significantly!

I invite those who don't subscribe to BoomBustBlog to please be sure to peruse our entire collection of free analysis on the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis.

Subscribers should review the ample Spanish research we have amassed on the crisis, its origins and opportunities avaiable:

Please be sure to peruse our entire collection of free analysis on the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis.


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