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The Crash of 2010 - Soon?

I misspoke in a Feb 11 missive "A-one, An-a-two" as the market went to new highs during March and April. It seemed too easy when I wrote the missive, as there were few divergences. The Dow is within 100 points today, and divergences abound.

There has been no sign of a Hindenberg Omen, an indicator studied by Kennedy Gammage and further explained by Bob McHugh. But McHugh postulated to subscribers on June 6:

"There is another indicator we follow every day which has spelled out the precise market condition as a Hindenburg Omen identifies. That is the number of 90 percent up days and 90 percent down days we have seen over the past six weeks. Are you ready for these stats? Amazing. Since April 16th, 2010, there have been eight 90 percent down days and four 90 percent up days. 90 percent days are panic buying or panic selling days. This is highly unusual market action. And it indicates as Peter (Peter Eliades) says about the H.O., 'the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence ... And such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some semblance of internal uniformity, and it doesn't matter what direction that uniformity takes.'"

A few other indicators have joined this unusual market activity. Over the past week, the Trin has recorded one of the highest Trin readings on record, and one of the lowest Trin readings of the past 70-years.

TRIN

According to Elliott Wave's June 11 Financial Forecast: "And today's intraday NYSE Tick of +1644 is a 23-year record extreme back to 1987 when our data series begins."

Trading volumes have a decided negative bias. That is, higher volume has been on the sell side for the past few months, with up days having lighter volume. The market trends higher only when the sellers back off.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Hindenberg Omen, McHugh's 90% Up/Down day divergence, the Trin and Tick extremes, and lack of buying volume are not "trading" timely, but strongly foreshadow an upset in the future.

There are many charting techniques and pattern recognition trading systems available to close in on the timing. My preference is Elliott Wave, which I practice as an amateur.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

As Yogi would say, "It's Deja Vu all over again," another one-two in Elliott terms. If the above numbering is correct, a target for Wave-3 Down, assuming equality with Wave-1, is for Dow 8,700 with potentially greater bearish consequences.

I'll repeat the closing sentence from my Feb 11 Missive: "Alternative Elliott counts may suggest otherwise, but the prudent person stands aside while this pattern unfolds."

 

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