• 678 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 678 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 680 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,080 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,085 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,087 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,090 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,090 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,091 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,093 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,093 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,097 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,097 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,098 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,100 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,101 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,104 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,105 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,105 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,107 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Update

The following commentary was posted at Gillespie Research

Summary

Two days a quarter do not make! But weak bond and stock closes today could signal that something is indeed in the process of change, and not for the better, either.

I plan on getting a good deal of update material out during next week. In the meantime, here is something to ponder over the long weekend.

Today's immediate reactions to the weaker-than-expected employment numbers were a sell-off in stocks and a sharp rally in bonds. In the case of stocks, I suspect it was the right reaction but probably for the wrong reasons. As to the bond market, I suspect it was simply the wrong reaction, although there are some strong technical forces that contributed to the initial rally.

There's still plenty of time left in the trading day for stocks to rally, so I'm not going to draw any conclusions about July commencing with two back-to-back down days. But were today's close to be a weak, negative one, it very well might be signaling an important change in direction.

As for long Treasuries, I expect them to finish today well off their price highs, yield lows.

What I suspect may be just ahead of the debt and equity markets is not only getting a stronger whiff of stagflation, but also beginning to react to it. I'll discuss this in greater detail soon, but I will state here that if stagflation is the direction in which we are heading, as I believe it is, it surely is not be bullish for either market.

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment