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Steve Bauer

Steve Bauer

Steve owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

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Investing Wisely -- Update with Recommendations and Personalized Follow-Up

Brief Intro:

A couple weeks ago I shared that a Pull-Back was required as part of the -- Conformation Process I need before committing to a Buying Opportunity -- (for that matter - I always need my Conformation(s) for a Buying or Shorting Opportunity.)

Well, this past 2 weeks, the Market gave us the beginning of that needed Pull-Back - twice and went on to Near-Term new highs.

So, with that in hand ...

Specific Company and ETF - Buy - Recommendations will be provided, just like in my April 8th Update / Recommendations. (You might remember that those were Short - Recommendations.)



Commentary :

Repeating: I remain a Bear waiting to prudently position the balance of my 100% CASH.

But before Shorting again I believe there will be a meaningful rally.

For those of you who are following (getting acquainted with my work / methodology) -- I expect to take some - Near- Term (1 - 6 weeks -- maybe longer) Long (Buy) Positions (very soon) before my resuming my analytics focus on the down-side.

A number of specific Recommendations (Companies and ETFs) will be Posted - here in SafeHaven in a Special Format of Investing Wisely -- when I believe those Recommendations to be prudent.


Rallies and Pull-Backs! -- That's what it is all about.

Within my Methodology there are several tiers / cycles of each -- Rallies for Buying and Pull-Backs for Shorting. Primary, Secondary - - third / fourth level tiers (Cycles) and so on. There is not enough profit potential in third / fourth or more - level tiers (Cycles) so - I use them as a technical set-up (part of my Conformations) to identify Buying and Shorting -- Primary and Secondary Cycle / Investment Opportunities. Historically -- Primary Cycles occur (Bull & Bear) 3 - 5 times per year and I use them for Investing. Historically Secondary Cycles, which include the Primary Cycles occur (Bull & Bear) 5 - 7 times per year and I use them for Trading.

I believe my use of Conformations is absolutely necessary if you want consistent annual profits -- they (Conformations) are what separates the professional from the average Financial Analyst / Investor. The very best professional baseball player will wait for the right pitch and does not swing on anything marginal.

Well - the same is true for having the patience and discipline to wait for the Primary and Secondary Cycle to begin. You could say - this is how I identify Tops and Bottoms.


I seldom publish the past Market's activity, but there has been, for me, a noticeable increase in "delays" in the Market to provide both Buying and Shorting - Investment Opportunities. Conformations are taking longer to form, and what appears to be Buying and / or Shorting Opportunities are being "aborted" more frequently, due to these "delays" - than in past years. According to the VIX Indicator, (the Volatility Index) -- volatility has dropped considerable, but the Market is moving Up and Down in short spurts making Investing very difficult and Trading the thing to do, if you want to invest your money for a few days at a time. I can and do - do this with special accounts, but this is definitely not my forte.

From my analytics and personal point of view, this ("delays") all began in October with a nice bottom and then it rallied for just 2 weeks and then there was a big - 1 week pull-back that was the actual or better entry point for the beginning of the November / December rally.

I didn't think much about it, at the time, until the late December / January sell-off of over 900 Dow points - all in just 3 weeks.

Then the February rally began and took the Market to a new high - over 1,400 Dow points. The Top however took 4 -5 weeks to both carve out and to finally hit its high in late April.

Then the late April sell-off of the entire February / March rally all in just 1 week. That plus the sell-off to late June has taken back all the gains since October. That means, few Investors are profitable for the past 8 - 9 months!

Since then, there have been ups and downs, as well as from the new Low just 3 weeks ago.

We have just completed 14 days of upside with a couple minor 1 -2 day pull-backs since the Low in late June. Not enough for a Conformation.

With all of this "review" stuff, I can conclude with just a few thoughts:

  • Patience and Discipline is necessary and it works

  • The Market is setting up for another major Pull-Back but there will likely be a meaningful rally preceding it -- that is, if we get a mini-pull-back -- (not a maxi pull-back) in the very near-term.

  • Volatility may not be showing up on VIX, but it is clearly - alive and well.

  • Traders rule - lately, but!!!

For many years CASH has been my Safe Haven / Safe Harbor. When there is a storm, like the one we are currently experiencing, I am either Short or in Cash. However, if during these times a Buying Opportunity presents itself - I'm not timid.


I'll Update these opinions and thoughts - promptly if Market Conditions change.

I will also share / remind you, in each Posting that -- while my mini - forecasts are (over the years) very accurate - there are many Variable Market Conditions (going's on - stuff) that can delay an Investment Opportunity - Long or Short. Unfortunately, given half of a chance, the dynamics of the Marketplace will most often create a delay! But, sooner or later ...


In-Favor Sectors: Emerging Markets, Health Care and Energy. Maybe a little Technology. Selective - Company and ETFs decisions to Buy or Short is critical.


As a Note / Warning to my Sector / Industry Group Rotation Work: Rotation is my essential key and is foundational to profiting in this Marketplace. So, I strongly emphasize the above word - "Selective." Even within my " In Favor" Sectors and Industry Groups the component Companies and ETFs -- are widely scattered and appear, on the Charts, to be heading in many different directions. Obviously, some of those "directions" are not good for your bottom line - even when you are within the correct Cycle!


If you would like:

  • the Sale / Cover side to my specific Recommendations for SafeHaven

  • information about my Work / Methodology / Services, or of me Personally

  • my performance record while with SafeHaven

--- just send me an Email and I will respond promptly ---


I also maintain a Blog focused on My Rotation Model which I will make available to those of you who may wish to be in contact with me. It covers -- My General Market Commentary - and - Sector Rotation Models and is Updated - 2 - 3 times per week.

Important! Please understand that it is important to me to know a bit about you -- so, I will ask you share, with me, a little personal information and a little investment background with your goals and objectives - just to get acquainted. Time will tell if there is a fit with what I do and your investment needs and objectives.

Just click on my name (below) for my Email Address.


Thank you for your interest.

Smile, have fun - Investing Wisely,

 

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