"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

  • 1 hour Spending Bill Could Cause U.S. Debt To Soar To 99% Of GDP
  • 3 hours Precious Metals Slide Ahead Of Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
  • 4 hours China’s Soft Power Grab May Be Bad News For Emerging Economies
  • 20 hours The Secretive Wall Street Firm Betting On Bitcoin
  • 21 hours ‘Data Is King’: The Oil Industry’s Next Most Valuable Resource
  • 22 hours Google Invests $300 Million To Combat Fake News
  • 23 hours Zuckerberg Dodges A Bullet As Facebook Loses Billions
  • 24 hours Tesla Tumbles As Investors Lose Patience
  • 1 day Are Alt-Coins On The Verge Of A Break Out?
  • 1 day What Should Gold Investors Expect From The New Fed Chair?
  • 1 day Who Will Pay For Trump's $60 Billion China Tariffs?
  • 2 days Vladimir Putin’s Mysterious Fortune
  • 2 days Cryptos Resist Social Media Crackdown
  • 2 days The Death Of Dodd-Frank
  • 2 days Bitcoin Bounces Back Ahead Of G20 Meeting
  • 2 days Trump's Trade War Nears Boiling Point
  • 2 days Will April Be A Turning Point For Precious Metals?
  • 2 days Economic Pressures Weigh On Banks And Borrowers
  • 2 days U.S. Political Uncertainty Keeps Stock Markets On Edge
  • 3 days Gold: The Religion Of Currency
The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B

The App That Democratized Trading Is Now Worth $5B

Investors and customers have rallied…

MortiES' Weekend Update 24July2010 ~ The Big Picture

This is the analysis that my premium subscribers received this evening. I post at the Value of Perfect Infomation. Join my newsletter as well!

Friday made a new high that ruined a Bearish count for some Bears. Don't feel too sorry for them, because they can still devise another Bear count. This Weekend I want to look at the Big Picture again, and because there is some ambiguity in the Weekly chart of ES I have compared the Weekly charts of other indices. It was an informative exercise.

First, we will look at the Weekly chart of ES that has been guiding my analysis by providing an overarching view of the market. Back on May 6th when we had the big one-day crash, I presented an overview of the market and said that I thought it was very possible that we were seeing a W4 of the rally from 6 March developing. I gave two W4 targets with the 61.8% retracement of W3 being the most extreme target that had to hold. Well, as you can see on the chart below, ES did get down to the extreme level and reverse. Now it stands as a line-in-the-sand for the Bulls. This count on this chart is made by AdvancedGET, but this software is not the Holy Grail. It merely gives one way to count this market. Because not all the indicators confirm ES making a new high, I look at the other indices in the charts following. To confirm that this is most likely a W4, ES needs to get above 1029.50 (Wave B of W4).

ES Weekly

Next I look at the Dow Transport Weekly chart. The Dow Transportation average has traditionally been a leading index. The analysis of this chart shows that all the indicators and other factors I look at are favorable to a successful W5 developing. Specifically, where the PTI (profit taking index) fell below 35 on the ES chart (not good for a successful W5), it is >35 on this chart.

Dow Transports

The Nasdaq has been a strong segment of the market throughout the rally from 6Mar2009. As with the Transports, the Nasdaq Weekly chart also supports a successful W5 taking out the W3 high. Also, like the Transports, W3 ended at the 78.6% retracement of the former market high (not the bubble in the early 2000's). Getting above this level will be very Bullish.


Then we look at the mighty DOW. It too supports the development of a successful W5 with a reversal at the most typical W4 target level (50% retracement of W3).

Dow Industrials

The overview of the Weekly charts of the indices seem to support the count that I have on the charts. Until ES says otherwise, I will go with this Bullish view of the market. I am sure EWI won't approve of this count, but I never was a joiner. I want to live up to my motto, "Always original, Sometimes right!" For those who believe that W3 was the end of an impulsive move and not W3, I say that that is entirely possible. That count is not far behind this count. I can make GET give me that count by using a Daily chart. I must admit that one consideration that makes me favor the more Bullish view of the market is the "summer rally" phenomenon. No matter which view is correct, it doesn't make a difference in my day trading tomorrow.

So what about the next trading session? That is really what my analysis is all about. Actually, we are at a somewhat tricky spot. I can make a case for either strength or weakness. Just because I believe we are in a W5, doesn't mean I think that every day will be up. The chart below explains what I am seeing in the market. Bottom line, the most Bullish thing I can see happening is a gap through the 78.6% resistance level I have on the chart and a strong rally. The next most likely scenario is consolidation under the resistance before heading higher. And then there is a Bearish scenario where ES corrects back to the former W4 before heading higher. I can't predict which will happen, but I will give updates as ES yields more data.

ES 90-Minute

We don't provide a day trading system. I am a probability trader that has modified a system that gives you an opportunity to learn to fish. The value we provide is in understanding setups and managing risks. However, there are times when I will give you a fish and other traders here will do the same. Also, please remember that this is about probabilities, not certainties.

My goal would be an "Elliott Wave for Dummies" curriculum. I love all the "for Dummies" books because they strive to simplify and clarify. They are profoundly simple. The mark of a good teacher IMO is someone who can get the hay down from the loft so the horses can eat it. Many teachers like to complicate their subject matter so they can appear "smart". I have no use for insecurity in teachers. The old saying that "it's better to teach someone to fish than give them a fish" is never more true than in teaching.

To that end, the best way to see what we do on a daily basis and on an intraday basis is to try our Premium Content. If this site doesn't add back more than the price of admission, then you have no obligation to subscribe after one month, and you will have still learned some Elliott.

If you like what you see here, wait to see how MortiES's analysis can assist you in your everyday investing or trading strategy! Go ahead, check out my track record and Click on "Subscribe to MortiES Premium" and give it a try! I am offering a 30 day free trial period.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Sign Up For The Safehaven Newsletter