SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK

See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE CORRECTION SINCE 04/26 ISN'T OVER, THE REBOUND SINCE 07/01 IS NEAR END

Maintain the forecast mentioned in 07/30 Market Recap, the correction since 04/26 isn't over and the rebound since 07/01 is near end.

From the chart below we can see, bulls have struggled for 5 weeks but still couldn't recover all the losses made by bears in 2 weeks. It doesn't look like the last year's mad cow is back.

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On the other hand, retailers are (represented by Rydex traders, courtesy of sentimentrader) very bullish.

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals, argues there's not much up room left. And don't forget this chart worked well even in the last year's mad cow period.

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The chart below is the zoom-in of the chart above. Take a look at what happened when VIX:VXV was at extremely low level.

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So to summarize above, I still don't think there's much room left on the upside. My estimation is the the final price target is SPX 1131 and the pivot date could be around 08/10.

I've mentioned in the Friday's After Bell Quick Summary, 08/06 doesn't look like a pivot day so the next pivot day according to the chart below should be around 08/09 to 08/11. My guess is 08/10 Fed day.

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The chart below explains my speculation about the price target. The rebound since 07/01 shows very strong Fib relations where the pullback always stopped around the Fib 50% of the previous up leg while the rebound always stopped around the Fib 61.8% of the previous up leg. So according to this relationship, since the Friday's low happened to be the Fib 50% of the previous up leg from 07/30 t0 08/04 therefore the pullback could be over, and the rebound target, if the same Fib 61.8% of the previous up leg from 07/30 to 08/04 rebound rule still applies, then it'd be around 1131. As for rebound time, if the same pullback day equals to rebound day rule applies, then it should be 2 trading days which happens to on 08/10 Fed day.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT BULLISH MONDAY

Expect bullish Monday. This, by the way, also fits well with the speculation mentioned in the intermediate-term session above - the pullback since 08/04 is over, expect 2 days rebound to 1131.

6.5.2a Weekday Seasonality Watch, bullish Monday is back?

6.2.4a SPX and VIX Divergence Watch, both VIX and SPX closed in red, 73% chances a green day the next day.

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SPY had 2 hollow red bars in a row, buy at close (that's Friday) sell at the next day close, you have 70% chances since year 2000.

SPY had back to back 2 unfilled gaps in a row, buy at close (that's Friday) sell at the next day close, you have 65% chances since year 2000.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST