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The Chapman Report

US INDICES

S&P 500 Intermediate Trend: Down Short-term Trend: Down Week: Down

S&P 500 Strategy: Stand Aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

  • The S&P 500 fell 0.7% this past week. The Dow Jones Industrials also fell 0.9%. Only the NASDAQ noted next rose on the week.
  • Stocks fell primarily because of continued signs of a weakening economy and also the potential for lower corporate profits.
  • The fall this past week was a follow through of the sharp decline seen the previous week.
  • The S&P 500 fell through 1090 support after failing at the key 1120/1130 resistance zone.
  • Above 1120/1130 the market could rise next to 1165 and even back 1200 and the previous highs of 1220. There remain potential unfulfilled targets up to 1250/1300.
  • Below support is next at 1060. Below 1060 the market should test the lows seen at 1010. A breakdown under 1010 could project down to 890.
  • Cycles remain negative although our key 1940 cycle still sees the market holding up into October before the decline gets underway. Thus far, however, the pattern is somewhat similar to the 1930 cycle where a top in August saw a sharp decline into November/December. Like this year 1930 also had an April final top.
  • Further adding to the woes of the stock market is not only is the economies slowing the governments around the world are talking of pulling back on their stimulus programs even as others plead with them to continue. Trouble is the stimulus programs have done nothing but add to the debt and many are calling for a huge cut back in debt. In order for there to be a successful pull back on government stimulus programs it is essential that the corporate sector start investing. But the corporate sector is not investing because they see only the potential for declining sales as the consumer continues to deleverage.
  • There is continued talk of quantitative easing (QE). QE could help spark a further stock market rally but it may not result in further loans as noted below in bonds. Why would it spark a stock market rally? The financial institutions that would be the beneficiary of QE have nowhere to park their funds. Either US Treasuries or speculate in the stock market. They won't be lending as the consumer is too busy deleveraging and the corporations are not investing. If they perceive the risk is low they will chose the stock market over bonds as they can earn more. This would result in a speculative rally. Key then once again is the 1120/1130 resistance zone as that will have to be broken in order to move higher. As well the 1060 zone needs to hold.
  • Stocks as represented by the S&P 500 continues in stand aside mode.

S&P500 and VIX
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

NASDAQ Intermediate Trend: Down Short-term Trend: Down Week: Up

NASDAQ STRATEGY: Stand Aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

NASDAQ and VXN
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • The NASDAQ had a small 0.3% gain this past week. The NASDAQ was the only major index to rise as both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials both fell.
  • An attempt was made at testing MA resistance near 2230. However, it failed and the NASDAQ fell back sharply on Thursday regaining only a small bit on Friday.
  • Resistance is seen at 2230 and up to 2300. Support is seen at 2160 (the area of Friday's lows). A break under 2160 would suggest a test of the recent lows near 2070. Under 2070 there are potential targets down to 1800.
  • The VXN volatility indicator remains in its recent downtrend; however, it would break out above 28.
  • The NASDAQ is forming a potentially bullish triangle with the breakdown nearby at 2160 and the breakout above 2300. The pattern is seen with the flat top and thus far possible rising lows. This pattern is normally though a 5 point pattern and thus far only three are seen so a rise and another fall with another higher low would be required to confirm the pattern. This pattern is, however, not being seen on either of the S&P 500 nor the Dow Jones Industrials.
  • Weekly indicators are pointed down while daily indicators have once again turned down.
  • It will be important for the NASDAQ to turn up again this coming week if it is to fulfill a possible forming bullish pattern. A breakdown would set the stage for lower prices and a test of the recent lows.


BONDS

US TREASURY BONDS Intermediate Trend: Up Short-term Trend: Up Week: Up (new highs)

US BOND STRATEGY: LONG
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

US Treasury Bonds
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • US Treasuries as represented by the 30 year bond futures rose 1.5% this past week. New highs for the move were seen.
  • 10 year Treasury notes fell to 2.62% from 2.68% the previous week. The 2 year Treasury note fell to another record low at 0.49% from 0.54% the previous week.
  • Continued signs of a weakening economy were behind the rise once again for Treasury bonds and notes. (Rise in price - prices move inverse to yields).
  • It was the fourth consecutive weekly rise for bond prices.
  • US Treasuries are the world's best refuge appeal to the global weakening economy and most easily traded. The flight into US Treasuries also contributed to the rising US$ Index.
  • Some are now saying that everyone is overreacting to the negative numbers. But in the end it doesn't matter it is a flight to safety.
  • There is also continued talk of quantitative easing (QE) whereby the US Federal Reserve buys securities thus supplying cash to the financial system.
  • Trouble is as noted in previous reports these funds are not finding their way into the economy as the consumer continues to deleverage. Household debt in the US has declined for 7 consecutive quarters to the first quarter 2010 as reported by the Flow of Funds accounts of the Federal Reserve. The first quarter saw a decline alone of $330 billion. In the seven quarter consumer debt has declined $1.6 trillion primarily in mortgages.
  • But there is more as loans outstanding have also declined for business and the financial sector.
  • Without loan growth the economy cannot grow. The decline in loans is showing up in the falling money supply M2 and M3 (not reported any longer) while M1 has exploded along with the monetary base. Tighter credit conditions and the ongoing deleveraging of the consumer and others are contributing to the decline.
  • Economic numbers that weakened this past week include: Building permits for July at 565 thousand vs. 583 thousand for June; initial claims at 500 thousand vs. 488 thousand the previous week (over 500 thousand starts to signal recessionary conditions); and, the Philly Fed (a measure of manufacturing in the Philadelphia region) for August at -7.7 vs. 5.1 in July. Offsetting these numbers were some small increases in housing starts for July at 546 thousand vs. 537 thousand for June; leading indicators for July 0.1% vs. a decline of 0.3% in June; industrial production for July 1% vs. a decline of 0.1% in June; capacity utilization for July at 74.8% vs. June 74.1%. The PPI rose 0.2% vs. a fall of 0.5% the previous month. Finally the NY Empire manufacturing index for August was 7.1 vs. 5.08 for July.
  • Key numbers this coming week are existing home sales for July expected 4.6 million vs. 5.37 million; durable orders for July up 2.5% vs. a decline of 1.2% for June; new home sales for July 300 thousand vs. 330 thousand for June; and the Michigan sentiment indicator at 69.6 unchanged. The GDP 2nd quarter is expected to be revised sharply down to 1.3% from the previous 2.4%.
  • This coming week the Treasury will auction $102 billion of 2, 5 and 7 year notes. There is also a $7 billion TIPS issue (inflation protected notes).
  • At 134^00 US Treasury bonds are still short of the December 2008 highs of 142^21. Resistance is seen at 136^00 and support is down to 130^00.
  • Bonds closed lower on Friday but it was not a reversal day as the high was seen the day before. The fall was primarily due to the announcement of the huge $102 billion treasury package noted above.
  • All bond systems remain long.

 

CANADIAN BONDS Intermediate Trend: Up Short-term Trend: Up Week: Up (new highs)

CANADIAN BONDS STRATEGY: BOND MODEL STAND ASIDE, TREND SYSTEM LONG
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

Canadian Bonds
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • Canadian bonds as represented by the Government of Canada (CGB) 10 year bond futures rose 0.4% this past week the fourth consecutive weekly rise. New highs for the move were also seen.
  • Bonds were spurred higher by continued evidence that the economy is weakening.
  • There are continued signs that Canada's housing market has cooled substantially. There is some consternation over the implementation of the HST in B.C. and Ontario but in reality it doesn't apply to existing home sales (although certain financial and legal are subject to the HST). The July CPI jumped sharply to 1.8% year over year from 1% in June year over year primarily because of the HST implementation in B.C. and Ontario. But remember that is a onetime phenomena. Core CPI was moderate.
  • Other numbers this past week were June manufacturing sales that rose an anaemic 0.1% vs. 0.5% rise in May; wholesale sales for June fell 0.3% after being flat in May; and leading indicators for July weakened to 0.4% from 0.7% in June. International security transactions fell sharply in June with only $5.4 billion vs. $23 billion in May.
  • The main number out this coming week is Retail Sales for June expected to be up 0.3% vs. May's fall of 0.2%. Auto sales are expected to boost the June number but the forecast notes that once autos are stripped out it may actually fall 0.2%. This would be similar to what was seen recently in the US retail sales. The decline is being traced partly to the falling housing market.
  • With bonds making new highs only the highs of January and March 2009 remain. Whether it is meaningful or not remains to be seen but bonds made new highs on Friday reversed and closed lower. If the reversal day is correct then lower prices could be seen this week. Otherwise the highs of the week at 126.45 would have to be taken out to negate the impact of the reversal day.
  • Support lies below at 124. Resistance ranges up to 128.
  • The trend following system remains long.


PRECIOUS METALS AND CURRENCIES

  Intermediate term trend Short-term trend week trend intermediate strategy
Gold up up up long
Gold Bugs Index (HUI) up up up long
Silver up down down long - caution
TSX Gold Index up up up long
US$ Index up neutral up long - caution
CDN$ neutral down down Stand aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

Gold & Silver

Gold and Silver
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • Gold prices rose 1% this past week but silver prices fell 0.7%. Platinum was off 0.8% while copper often seen as a leading indicator rose 1.2%. The rise of copper in the face of a weakening economy is seen as potentially bullish.
  • Gold prices failed at trend line resistance seen near $1237. A break above this level would be positive and suggest that the highs near $1265 could fall. Support is seen at $1220, $1210 and $1200. Below $1200 a test of major support near $1170 becomes probable. Below $1170 and especially under $1150 a steeper decline to test even down to $1000 could occur.
  • While the bear scenario is not likely it needs to be noted as long as new highs are not seen and the market remains below $1250.
  • Silver was weak this past week as it fell to support near $17.90. A break under $17.90 could suggest a further decline to test major support at $17.25.
  • The end of August often sees some price pullbacks in the precious metals. As well with the options expiration this week weakness is often seen for precious metals prices with the market rebounding once the options expiration is out of the way.
  • The seasonals are turning positive with the period from July to December or from worst case October to February/March often seen as the best period of the year for both gold and silver. Over the past ten years this period has proven to be very positive with average gains of at least 37% over the past decade. 2009 saw a 35% gain from July to December for gold.
  • The commercial COT for gold has turned mildly negative falling to 29% from 30% this past week. A 16,000 contract rise was seen in short open interest while long open interest fell 2,000 contracts. The silver commercial COT however rose to 28% from 27% with a 3,000 contract rise in long open interest although short open interest also rose 3,000 contracts. The large speculator COT saw the long open interest rise 16,000 contracts offsetting a 3,000 contract rise in short open interest. The COT itself remained unchanged at 87%. This is mildly bearish.
  • Key remains the US$ and a further rise in the US$ might pull the PM prices back.
  • There are indications that a Chinese gold rush could get underway. The Chinese government is actively promoting gold for consumer investment; they are also encouraging banks to import and export gold for consumption; gold trading is being opened to foreign companies in China (China is the world's largest producer of gold); new consumer products are being created; and, finally China (and Russia) continue to add to their foreign reserves for gold. China had to import 100 tonnes of gold in the past year even as they are the world's largest producer.
  • A shift upward in demand would see the front price for gold rise above the futures prices. This is known as backwardation and would be quite bullish for gold.
  • Short term gold (and silver) could hesitate to correct the recent strong rise particularly in gold. This is however expected to be a short term phenomena as the positive seasonals kick in.
  • The giant head and shoulders pattern seen from March 2008 to September 2009 still projects up to around $1425 for gold and $27 for silver. The recent action has weakened the potential cup and handle formation.
  • Gold (and silver) remain in long term up trends and there are few signs that is about to be broken. The positive seasonals and bullish formation should see higher gold and silver prices before year end.

Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and TSX Gold Index

Gold Bugs Index and TSX Gold Index
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • Both precious metals indices put in good up weeks with the rise in gold prices and despite the weakness seen in silver prices. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) rose 3.2% while the TSX Gold Index jumped 4.2%.
  • Weakness was, however, seen towards the end of the week suggesting that a test to the downside could be seen before the indices rise once again.
  • Support for the HUI is seen at 460 (tested Friday and the HUI rebounded off of the level) and for the TSX Gold Index at 370.
  • Resistance for the HUI is seen at 480 and for the TSX Gold Index at 385 to 395. The TSX Gold Index has had a stronger rise over the past three weeks. Both indices remain below their all time highs. For the HUI that was made in March 2008 at 519 and for the TSX Gold Index at 395 in December 2009 (slightly taking out the 390 high of March2008).
  • The HUI has support down to 440 but below 440 a fall to major support at 430 is probable. Below 430 a sharp decline to 400 could be seen.
  • The TSX Gold Index has support at 370 and then down to 350. Below 350 a more precipitous decline could be seen towards 315.
  • Above 495 for the HUI and above 390 for the TSX Gold Index new highs are highly probable.
  • Long term chart formations are still suggesting targets of 750 for the HUI and 570 for the TSX Gold Index. This is based off the huge head and shoulders seen forming between March 2008 and September 2009. The possible cup and handle formation has been weakened by the recent action. That pattern suggested even higher potential targets.

Canadian Dollar

Canadian Dollar
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • The Cdn$ continued its recent decline losing 0.6% this past week.
  • The prime reason for the decline was further evidence that the Cdn economy is beginning to falter once again (outlined under the Canadian bond commentary).
  • The Cdn$ however, remains caught in the sideways pattern evidenced over the past several months. This pattern has recently narrowed to a range of roughly 94 to 98. A break above 98 would suggest a test of the top of the range currently near 102 while a break under 94 and especially 93 suggests a more bearish decline to potential targets near 86/87 and as suggested by the possible broadening pattern seen on the Cdn$.
  • With the close under 96 that level becomes short term resistance. Above 96 a return towards 98 is probable.
  • Below 94.75 the decline to 94 and even 93 becomes highly probable.
  • Weekly indicators remain to the downside and there are no signs of positive divergences.
  • On a positive note the Cdn$ commercial COT improved this past week to 24% from 16%. Long open interest rose 6,000 contracts while short open interest fell 12,000 contracts. This is somewhat encouraging for Cdn$ bulls. Also encouraging was a sharp 5,000 contract decline for small speculators long open interest suggesting that the small speculator is throwing in the towel on the Cdn$. Even more so was the very sharp 12,000 contract decline in long open interest for large speculators (hedge funds etc.). This is also potentially bullish as the large speculators throw in the towel for a bull up move in the Cdn$.
  • While the decline this past week was bearish and further support is seen below the change around in the COT is encouraging for Cdn$ bulls. Regaining 96 would be positive and help suggest that a move back to 98 is possible.

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • The US$ Index added a small 0.1% to its up thrust seen the previous week. The initial part of the week saw some weakness but by week's end the US$ managed a small gain closing at 83.16.
  • Small gains were seen against the Euro and the British Pound with the Japanese Yen going the opposite way with a small gain against the US$.
  • The US$ Index has resistance up 84. Weekly indicators have yet to fully turn up and remain in bear mode. The intermediate trend has not as yet changed to down despite the sharp drop over the past few weeks as the US$ Index was coming off of a very straight up move. The short term trend while officially neutral is attempting to turn up as indicators such as the MACD have turned up.
  • The commercial COT for the Euro turned up to 53% from 51% as long open interest rose 5,000 contracts and short open interest fell 3,000 contracts. This is bullish. The British Pound commercial COT rose to 50% from 49% as short open interest fell 5,000 contracts while long open interest rose 1,000 contracts .This is also somewhat bullish. The Japanese Yen commercial COT rose to 33% from 31% with a 3,000 contract rise in long open interest. This is mixed and remains mildly bearish for the JY.
  • Above 84 the US$ Index would turn more bullish. The US$ Index is being viewed as a safe haven in the face of a weakening US and global economy. IT has been reflected in the rush into US Treasuries.
  • Support is seen at 82 and 81 but below 81 new lows are probable.
  • The overall outlook for the US$ remains bearish in the face of a weakening US economy. The US$ is getting a short term boost as a safe haven as US Treasuries are viewed safe. If this outlook were to change a decline in the US$ could be precipitous.


ENERGY

  Intermediate term trend Short-term trend week trend intermediate strategy
Oil down down down Stand aside
Natural Gas down down down Stand aside
XOI Index down neutral down Stand aside
TSX Energy Index down down down Stand aside
(For definitions of terms, see end of report)

Oil & Gas

Oil and Gas
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • Both oil and gas turned more bearish this past week as oil prices fell 2.1% and natural gas prices dropped 4.9%.
  • Oil prices broke under trendline and key pivot support at $76/$77 closing just under $74. NG prices fell further suggesting a test of trendline support at $4.
  • The problem for energy prices is fourfold: a weakening economy, no threats from hurricanes as of yet, good supply levels, and, no apparent movement towards a bombing of the Iranian nuclear reactor.
  • On the latter Iran is this weekend fuelling its first nuclear reactor at Bushear with the help of the Russians. Intelligence reports suggest that the situation is being followed closely but it is unlikely that any move will be made to attack Iran. The consequences of an attack are well known: it would only make a dent in Iran's nuclear program; reprisals are probable including a launching of attacks on Israel from Lebanon; it would solidify the grip the mullahs have on Iran; the price of oil could spike sharply and an attempt would be made to block the Straits of Hormuz where 40% of the world's oil passes; and finally it would set the world on the edge not only economically but militarily as well given Russian and Chinese support for Iran to protect their investments and China's dependence on Iran for oil.
  • On the supply front the EIA reported that oil supplies fell 0.8 million barrels but they are 10.5 million barrels above last year's levels; gasoline supplies were flat and are 13.6 million barrels above last year; and, distillates rose 1.1 million barrels and are 12.6 million barrels above last year. Note the EIA is reporting for the USA only.
  • The EIA also reported that NG in storage is 3,012 Bcf which was 185 Bcf below last year's levels but 196 Bcf above the 5 year average.
  • The faltering US economy has been discussed under the US bond commentary. Hurricane season remains in force and the heaviest part of the season is approaching even as thus far the season has been strangely quiet.
  • The commercial COT for oil fell to 47% this past week from 48% with a 4,000 contract rise for long open interest more than offset with a 13,000 contract rise for short open interest. The commercial COT for NG rose to 61% from 60% as the short open interest fell 3,000 contracts (short covering). The commercial COT for oil is mildly bearish while the commercial COT for NG remains bullish.
  • Oil prices have resistance now at $76/$77. Support is seen at $70 but below $70 a fall to $65 and even $60 is possible. The recent lows were seen at $67.15 and a break of that level could suggest an ultimate decline to the $48/$50 zone. This would be a major test of the December 2008 lows near $35. A test that deep is highly unlikely given the propensity for the Arabs preference to see oil prices remain in the $70/$80 zone. The large topping pattern that has formed on the oil charts over the past 10 months does have potential targets down to the $48/$50 zone on a breakdown under $67. Above $76/$77 a move to $80 is probable. Above $82.50 oil prices would embark on a bullish move with potential targets between $95 to $100.
  • Indicators on the oil charts are turning down bearishly with no positive divergences suggesting that lower prices are clearly possible.
  • NG prices have support at $4 but a break under that level would set up a test of the March 2010 lows near $3.30. While that is possible the first reaction would probably be a rebound off of the $4 support zone. NG has considerable resistance between $4.30 and up to $4.70. Only above $4.70 would NG embark on a more bullish move towards $5 or higher.
  • The energy markets are quite weak and lower prices appear to be in the works. It would take at this stage a shock to turn the current bearish outlook around.

Amex Oil & Gas Index (XOI) and TSX Energy Index

XOI Index and TSX Energy Index
Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

  • The Energy sector continues to be very weak in the face of a weakening economy. The AMEX Oil & Gas Index (XOI) lost 3% and the TSX Energy Index fell 0.7% this past week.
  • It was the 2nd weekly decline for the XOI and the 4th for the TSX Energy Index.
  • Both indices broke uptrend lines. The TSX Energy Index appears also to be breaking down under a gentler uptrend line.
  • Both indices have fallen under key MA's on both the daily and weekly charts.
  • Both indices appear now to be headed for a test of the lows - the XOI at 870 and the TSX Energy Index near 260 (Note: Close XOI 948.70, TSX Energy Index 270.52).
  • For the TSX Energy Index the breakdown is such that new lows are probable. Possible targets are 220/225.
  • For the XOI potential targets are as low as 700 but only after the index makes new lows below 870.
  • Weekly and daily indicators are pointed lower. Weekly indicators are turning down dangerously with no positive divergences present suggesting that lower prices are possible.
  • For the XOI only a break above 1025 could begin to change this bearish outlook. For the TSX Energy Index a break above 290 would be positive and suggest higher prices.
  • The energy stocks have turned increasingly bearish. Both indices are in stand aside mode.

TSX Indices

  • The S&P TSX Composite gained 1.7% this past week.
  • 11 of 14 sub-indices were up on the week.
  • Leading the way was Materials gaining 7.8% primarily led by Potash (POT-TSX). Gold gained 4.2% while both Metals & Mining and Telecommunications gained 1.7%.
  • The sub-indices to the downside were Energy off 0.7%, Health Care lost 0.4% and closed lower after making new highs and Income Trusts lost a tiny 0.09%.
  • The TSX Venture Exchange gained 1.6% on the week.
  • There were no intermediate trend changes this past week.
  • Short term trend changes were as follows: S&P TSX Composite down to up; TSX 60 down to neutral; Consumer Discretionary neutral to up; and, Telecommunications neutral to up.
  • New highs were seen for Health Care and Real Estate. As noted Health Care reversed and closed lower.
  • The S&P TSX Composite appears to have found at least temporary support just under 11,500. A solid break of this level would target the composite down to 11,000. Below 11,000 new lows would be seen with next major support near 10,000.
  • Resistance is seen from roughly 11,700 up to 12,000.
  • Weekly indicators are pointed to the downside. Daily indicators are also generally pointed down but are attempting to turn up.
  • The S&P TSX Composite is tracing out what may be a large head and shoulders topping pattern. The breakdown zone is under 11,100 with minimum measuring implications to around 9,770.
  • Only a move above 12,070 could start to change this scenario.
  • A number of sectors remain long according to the intermediate trend following system below. They are Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Industrials, Materials, Telecommunications, Utilities, Gold, Real Estate and Income Trusts. Some such as Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Utilities appear to be tracing out topping patterns. Others such as Health Care and Real Estate remain in good up trends. Telecommunications may be forming a rising pattern that could suggest an upside breakout. Materials also appear poised to break out as a number of agriculture stocks put in a very positive week. Gold appears as well to be poised for a breakout to the upside. Consumer Staples have begun a new uptrend but have not as yet made new highs. New highs would be positive.
  • Energy, Financials, Metals & Mining, and Information Technology all appear weak and poised for further losses.

 

TSX INDICES

  trend  
  close on
Aug 20
52-week
high
52-week
low
interm-
ediate trend
short-
term trend
Week
trend
strategy
TSX Composite 11,722.07 12,321.75 10,480.17 neutral up up Stand aside
TSX 60 682.72 723.04 692.22 down neutral up Stand aside
TSX CDNX Venture 1,479.62 1,691.00 1,155.50 down up down Stand aside
Energy 270.52 309.46 254.29 down down down Stand aside
Financials 167.52 192.26 162.75 down down up Stand aside
Information Technology 27.52 31.96 25.86 down down up Stand aside
Consumer Discretionary 90.42 92.64 74.41 up up up long hold
Consumer Staples 181.00 183.02 160.93 up up up Long hold
Healthcare 43.66 44.00 30.79 up up down long hold
(new highs)
Industrials 98.56 103.03 83.46 up neutral up Long hold
Materials 366.24 369.49 275.56 up up up Long hold
Telecommunications 86.76 87.81 72.02 up up up long hold
Utilities 197.88 204.97 168.74 up up up Long hold
Gold 379.64 395.46 290.96 up up up long hold
Metals & Mining 914.12 1168.83 754.31 down neutral up Stand aside
Real Estate 177.78 179.36 134.73 up up up long hold
(new highs)
Income Trusts 126.66 132.93 103.71 up neutral down (barely) long hold
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)


EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS

  • The markets were very mixed this past week and as a result many of the ETF's seem to have little direction. If the trend below is down it is a weak down, similarly very few are solidly up except Gold and the India ETF below (IFN) who appears to be breaking out.
  • There was only change on the intermediate trend this past week: QQQQ neutral to down.
  • Short term trend changes were as follows: XGD neutral to up; XIU down to neutral; XIC neutral to up; FXI down to neutral; and, SLV up to neutral.
  • New highs were seen for XRE, XBB, XRB and TLT. Bonds continue to outperform.

 

ETF intermediate trend short-term trend intermediate strategy
XGD/T Gold up up long hold
XMA/T Materials up up Long hold
XIT/T Technology down down Stand aside
XFN/T Financials down down Stand aside
XEG/T Energy down down Stand aside
XRE/T REIT up up long hold (new highs)
XIU/T TSX 60 down neutral Stand aside
XSP/T S&P 500 down down Stand aside
XBB/T Bonds up up Long hold (new highs)
XSB/T Short Bonds up up Long hold
XRB/T Real Return Bonds up up long hold (new highs)
XIC/T Composite neutral up Stand aside
XMD/T Mid-Cap up up Long hold
QQQQ NASDAQ down down Stand aside
SPY/NY S&P 500 down down Stand aside
EWJ/NY Japan down down Stand aside
FXI/NY China 25 neutral neutral Stand aside
EEM/NY Emerging Markets up up Long barely
GLD/NY Gold up up long hold
SLV/NY Silver up neutral long hold
IEV/NY Europe down neutral stand aside
IFN/NY India up up Long hold
TLT/NY 20-year bond up up Long hold (new highs)
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

 

Horizon Beta Pro Single ETF's

  • The HBP Comex Gold, Comex Silver and Winter NYMEX Oil and Winter NYMEX Natural Gas are currency hedged.
  • The HBP Inverse ETF's can be used as portfolio hedges or as positional trades.
  • Intermediate trend changes were as follows: HIX neutral to down; HIF neutral to up - Buy; and, HIE neutral to up - Buy. Most significant were the buy signals for both HIF and HIE.
  • Short term trend changes were as follows: HUG neutral to up; and, HIX up to down.

 

ETF Intermediate trend short-term trend intermediate strategy
HBP Comex Gold HUG/T up up Long
HBP Comex Silver HUZ/T up neutral Long - caution
HBP Winter NYMEX Crude Oil HUC/T down down Stand aside
HBP Winter NYMEX Natural Gas HUN/T down down Stand aside (new lows)
HBP S&P TSX 60 Inverse HIX/T down down Stand aside - bottoming
HBP S&P Financials Inverse HIF/T up up Buy
HBP S&P Energy Inverse HIE/T up up Buy
HBP S&P Gold Inverse HIG/T down down Stand aside
(for definitions of terms, see end of report)

Please note: Horizon BetaPro products are securities of related issuers to MGI Securities.

 


DEFINITIONS OF TERMS

Intermediate-term trend (weekly trend): Of interest to conservative long term investors. As long as the intermediate trend is up, conservative long term investors can continue to hold. But watch the short-term trend for possible trend changes coming.

Short-term trend (daily trend): Of interest to more aggressive investors and traders. When the short term trend turns up more aggressive investors and traders may wish to go long. Note though that all strategy signals are based on the intermediate trend only.

Strategy:

Buy: All buy signals relate solely to the intermediate trend. A buy signal is issued when the intermediate trend turns up.

Sell: All sell signals relate solely to the intermediate trend. A sell signal is issued when the intermediate trend turns down.

Stand aside: intermediate strategy is in stand aside mode following a sell signal.

Long or long hold: intermediate trend is up following a buy signal and investors can continue to remain long.

Long or long hold - topping or caution: short term indicators are diverging negatively and there are other indicators indicating to us that the market may be topping out. Confirmation will only come when the intermediate trend turns down and issues a sell signal.

Stand aside - bottoming: short term indicators are diverging positively and there are other indicators indicating to us that the market may be about to change from stand aside to buy. Confirmation will only come when the intermediate trend turns up and issues a buy signal.

Stand aside - accumulate: similar to stand aside - bottoming above except investors may wish to consider accumulating. Confirmation will only come when the intermediate trend turns up and issues a buy.

(New highs, new lows): market or index is making new highs or new lows.

Trend Signals:

Up - Trend is up.

Down - Trend is down.

Neutral - Trend has entered a transition phase before either resuming the current trend or changing trend. This is a caution zone and signals that a trend change may be in the offing.

Charts created using Omega TradeStation 2000i. Chart data supplied by Dial Data.

 

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