• 314 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 315 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 316 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 716 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 721 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 723 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 726 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 726 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 727 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 729 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 729 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 733 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 733 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 734 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 736 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 737 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 740 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 741 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 741 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 743 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Dock Treece

Dock Treece

Dock David Treece is a partner with Treece Investment Advisory Corp (www.TreeceInvestments.com) and is licensed with FINRA through Treece Financial Services Corp. He provides expert…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Investor Sentiment Follows Party Lines

Though many try, in our business it's extremely hard to ignore politics. Aside from being difficult, it can also be expensive. After all, government policy has a tremendous impact on economics, which in turn influences the global financial markets.

As we've written before, generally speaking we try to remove ourselves from our own political opinions while analyzing investments. Unfortunately, we can't ignore them completely. To do so would be to ignore one of the biggest factors impacting the investment world.

However, while we have our own opinions, we also recognize that when analyzing the current political or economic atmosphere, our opinions simply don't make a difference. This has nothing to do with whether our views align with current party in power. It is simply necessary that we understand that our own opinions are of no consequence, and we need to take an objective view of the world.

Each and every day market prices are determined by consensus. Though the market continues to reach this consensus, we have been seeing markets become increasingly divided - just like the current political situation in this country. As in Washington, people on Wall Street are tending towards extremes.

Today some argue that we are in the midst of the most severe depression since the 1930s, while others argue that we are on the verge of one of the fiercest bull markets in a generation.

It might seem strange, but these forecasts are strongly influenced by political beliefs. Beliefs, not in what politicians in Washington SHOULD do, but how circumstances will likely play out because of what's already been done.

Across history, the vast majority of the time this country is relatively centrist, politically speaking. At different times in history, though, the US can become torn between extremes. This seems to be one of those times. Further, the extreme opinions on politics are also impacting people's view of the economy and markets.

For an example of the division currently facing our country, look no further than Glenn Beck's recent rally at the Lincoln Memorial. Just as importantly, explore the differing reactions people have to that event.

It's important to understand the factors weighing on the world today, but just as important is where we go from here. Some say revolution or a second civil war. These are so unlikely that they're hardly worth considering.

Through history, while extreme opinions sometime come to dominate political or business climates, they trend always back to the center. This theory of mean reversion applies across a great deal of disciplines, from meteorology and chemistry to sociology and philosophy.

Thankfully, it also applies to economics, politics, and finance. Each of these subjects is the study of either people or the world around us, both of which have natural equilibriums that exist. Despite the occasionally extreme conditions that occur, these equilibriums tend to be sought out.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment