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Aussie Dollar Set-up to Tumble after Reversal Top

The U.S. Dollar strengthened this morning after touching a five-month low against the Euro. The subsequent break in the EUR USD put this pair in a position to form a bearish closing price reversal top, but a late session surge negated the pattern.

Even without the reversal top which would indicate this pair's next move, the Euro looks tired at current price levels, but is not likely to turn bearish until support at 1.3510 is violated.

Unlike the Euro, the AUD USD was able to post a daily closing price reversal top. The sell-off in the U.S. equity markets helped to lead the charge lower.

Technically, the Aussie Dollar is trading inside a small range of .9462 to .9733. This makes .9598 to .9566 a retracement zone target. This is really nothing compared to the bigger picture.

The longer rally from .8770 to .9733 makes .9251 a potential downside target once the reversal top is confirmed. An uptrending Gann angle at .9290 could slow down the pace of the expected decline.

This morning's break in both currency pairs was most likely triggered by long position squaring caused by three better-than-expected U.S. economic reports. This morning's 2Q GDP, Weekly Initial Claims, and Chicago PMI all came out better than their estimates, encouraging long traders to adjust their positions.

Many traders had been buying the Euro and the Aussie at will in expectation of a new round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Based on this morning's data, the Fed may not have to print money as aggressively as previously thought.

U.S. stocks also fell as traders made month-end adjustments. Even with today's sell-off stocks will post one of the best Septembers on record.


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