Five weeks ago called for, and we got a Buying Opportunity. Passing this investment opportunity and continuing to hold cash has been painful.
Currently, the market is now setting up for yet another Pullback, and I hope to participate. That is perhaps a couple of days, a week or more, down the line.
So, with that brief update and mini-forecast in hand:
I believe that specific Company - Short Sale - Shorts and Inverse ETF - Buys - Recommendations will be provided to SafeHaven rather soon, just like in my April 8th Update / Recommendations.
Special Assessment of the Current Marketplace:
My Mini-Forecast(ing) is doing fine, but what is happening currently in the marketplace cannot be explained in a "Forecast". So, I would like to tell you a Story, and it is all about the "Indices" vs. the "Internals". Few Investors really understand the principle of "Internals" because they are so obscure and concealed. The same is true about "Rotation" and the two are deeply interlinked.
Let me see if I can explain. Every single security on all exchanges is constantly Rotating in and out of favor. Therefore, Internally there are a number of inter-woven cycles going on, day after day, with these individual securities/companies. Each of them, including their Industry Groups are jumping from cycle (a) to cycle (b) and then to cycle (z) in a complex and random manner. That includes the English and all other alphabets of all other languages. Now that is called - "Complex".
There are always many Companies and Industry Groups that are currently NOT making new highs along with the Indices or new lows along with the Indices in bear market environments. The Banking Industry Group most recently had an inter cycle pullback, within this current rally and is starting to rally again a couple of days ago. You might want to follow some of the Bank securities this coming week, and you will see what I mean. Their cycle was recently not in phase with the marketplace, but maybe this coming week it will get back in phase?
If you are still following me, in this monolog - then you will understand that another Industry Group (perhaps several other Industry Groups) will definitely rotate out of phase with the Indices next week and the week beyond, etc. That's how it works and that is why I said Friday that it was a "Balanced" week. Most Investors would understand my remark to be that the marketplace was flat, neither up nor down very much. What I was sharing is that while one Industry Group was going down another Industry Group was going up, thus creating a "Balance". That means that there was "Rotation" going on "Internally" and the Indices had no clue.
It's a "Choppy" and "Bifurcated" marketplace, and that is why everyone seems to be saying "they can't figure it out".
With all this Rotation is going on - Internally - 99% or more of the Investors, Financial Analysts and Asset Managers just can't see it, picture it, get a handle on it, or understand it! And that, my friends, is why they are losing money, and I am in CASH!
I hope you are beginning to understand, just a bit more about my analytics / work.
Now I'll try to make yet another point. It is that sustained "Momentum", in one direction or the other that is necessary for you to make money consistently. It is said, and I agree that the General Market has about a 60% influence on whether or not you are making money. Until an Inflection Point occurs, and you invest on or around that Inflection Point you are just churning your money in this current "Choppy" and "Bifurcated" marketplace. Kind of dumb, don't you think?
So that is my Mini-Forecast and Story for this Sunday. I'll be back to a normal mini-forecast by next Sunday.
No Commentary this Week.
My Bottom Line:
* I am holding 100% Cash.
* Patience and Discipline - waiting for my list of Fundamental, Consensus and Technical - "Conformations" to all fall into place is part of the necessary process for Investing Wisely!
* Inflection Points historically have occurred about three - five times per annum. We have already had 5 clear and meaningful Inflection Points so far this year.
* Five weeks ago I said: "The Market is now (very possible) setting up for another meaningful but likely (short in duration) Rally!"
* Now it looks just the opposite. One of these days this choppy and bifurcated market (late April to date) will do something meaningful and the next possibility of that is a Pull-Back.
* High Volatility may not currently be showing up on VIX - lately, but it is clearly - alive and well.
I'll Update these opinions and thoughts - promptly if Market Conditions change.
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Thank you for your time in reading my "stuff" and continued interest in my work.
Smile, have Fun - Investing Wisely,