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Daily DXY Roundup: 11/03

The DXY's (US Dollar Index) rally faded after the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee).Closing price-action confirmed follow-through from Tuesday's bearish engulfmentpattern. The latest consolidation break-down has now directed dollar bears towardskey trendline support near the 76 handle. A decisive close above the 20-day MAat 77.20 is required to stabilize the current bout of selling pressure.

The Yen was the clear loser of the day, prompting intervention rumors by theMOF (Ministry of Finance). The USD/JPY accelerated through stops after confirminga higher low above Tuesday's high. Clearing the 20-day MA is the next obstacleand doing so would expose the key JPY82 region. Only above this key pivot suggestsa more meaningful rally is in store.

The EUR/USD continues to extend gains since breaking out of a triangular consolidationpattern. From an Elliot wave perspective, the completion of the corrective fourthwave has now triggered the terminal fifth wave. While EUR1.4186 is a significanttechnical level, it is too early to determine whether the fifth wave extensionwill be a mere throw-over.

In the meantime, the currency markets will have to keep an eye on the S&P500. The index is nearing a confluence of Fibonacci levels in the 1202/1203 region.A rejection at this pivot could set the stage for the DXY to complete impulsiveweakness.

 

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