Brief Introduction

My focus is "Investing Wisely", e.g. taking advantage of the Bull / Bear Cycles as they occur within the overall marketplace. Integrating modern analytics within these Cycles, means maintaining a process of the thorough fundamental, technical and consensus analysis of the marketplace. I believe that this discipline provides the necessary clarity regarding the Rotation that most all Companies goes through - from favorable times to unfavorable times and perhaps back again.

Forecast

I am going to climb out on the limb again as we close out this year.

It is not clear sailing for the Bulls or the Economy - in front of us.

I would simple like to share some of the things that I think "fight" the conclusion that many pundits are drawing for 2011:

• Sustaining the Bush tax cuts is not a stimulus. No one's check is going to be bigger as a result. This is more of an absence of a negative versus a positive.

• The $115b, 2% reduction in Social Security taxes is a stimulus. But not much of one. It comes to $15 a week for the average worker. elimination of the Make Work Pay program. Net net no big deal.

• The dollar is too strong to think that our economy is going to grow much in 2011 and will bring us higher trade and current account deficits.

• 2011 will be a year of non-stop muni "crisis" talk. What this really means is that the states, counties, cities, towns and villages will all be cutting expenses.

• Energy prices are rising. In 2011 we will see this in both electricity and gas. $15 a week savings from SS is going right out the window and into a gas tank.

• Mortgage rates are not getting cheaper.

• Don't count on the EU lifting US GDP in 2011. Not going to happen.

• China is a question mark. I say that they cool in the coming year by more than the current thinking.

• Wild Card. There are always surprises. Rarely are they good.

So if the above is correct it is going to put a big dent in markets that are now trading very rich. If in fact what we are seeing is a big misread on the economy and a distortion by QE2 then we are going to see the bottom levels on the charts again

My Current Bottom Line:

* I am holding 100% Bearish Positions.

* Patience and Discipline - waiting for my list of Fundamental, Consensus and Technical - "Conformations" to all fall into place is part of the necessary process for "Investing Wisely".

* Inflection Points historically have occurred historically about three - five times per annum. We have already had 5 clear and meaningful Inflection Points so far this year. Investing at or around the time of my Inflection Points has proven to be a profitable way to invest.

* In my late August posting, I said: "The Market is now (very possible) setting up for another meaningful but likely (short in duration) Rally!" It certainly did rally!

* Now it looks just the opposite. One of these days this choppy and bifurcated market (late April to date) will do something meaningful and the next possibility of that is a meaningful Pullback.

* High Volatility may not currently be showing up on VIX due to the current rally - but VIX being an Inverse Indicator, I can assure you that it is clearly - alive and well.

If you would like to have:

* After my making specific Recommendations - An Email from me at the time I Sell / Cover each of my specific Recommendations. This is an exclusive service for SafeHaven readers.

* Information about my Work / Methodology / Services, or of my personal and professional background.

* A second opinion based on an article or something said on the financial networks.

* My performance record while contributing with SafeHaven.

* My on going Research / Analytics Commentary, 2 -3 times each week you may want to become a "Follower" of my personal / private Blog.

* And you are a -- Serious Investor ...

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Thank you for your time in reading my "stuff" and continued interest in my work.

Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",