• 17 hours Gold ETFs See Record Inflows
  • 19 hours What's Fueling The Silver Stock Rally?
  • 2 days Fake News Is A New Virus Without A Cure
  • 2 days The Countries Hit Hardest By COVID-19
  • 2 days China's $700 Billion Infrastructure Package Sends Copper Soaring
  • 2 days Are Investors Ignoring The Largest Financial Risk Ever?
  • 3 days Americans Are Counting On Another COVID Stimulus Check
  • 3 days What's Next For Hong Kong?
  • 4 days Bitcoin Fails To Stay Above $10,000
  • 4 days Bill Gates And Big Oil Chase The Dream Of Nuclear Fusion
  • 4 days Top Jeweler To Use Only Recycled Gold And Silver
  • 5 days America’s Multi-Front Meltdown
  • 5 days Gold Up As U.S. Civil Unrest Escalates
  • 5 days How BlackRock Became King Of ESG Investing
  • 6 days Americans Don’t Care if TikTok Is A Security Threat
  • 7 days What’s Next In The Trump vs. Twitter Drama?
  • 8 days Escalating Tensions Could Crush $52 Billion China-U.S. Energy Deal
  • 9 days The Fed Is Printing Money At Unprecedented Levels
  • 9 days How Is The Real Estate Market Handling COVID-19?
  • 9 days Gold Flat As Markets Await Fed Chair Speech
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Toby Connor

Toby Connor

GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Yearly Cycle Low Approaching

Sometime between early February and early April the market should drop down into a major yearly cycle low. Last year that cycle low came during the first week of February.

Since the current daily cycle is now in the timing band for a bottom we should see an intermediate top fairly soon.

SPX Yearly Cycle

Yearly cycle corrections are major corrections, only exceeded by the four year cycle low in severity. So once the correction begins it should be a dozy. The severity of the impending correction will tell us whether the cyclical bull is on its last legs or not.

If the correction retraces back to or maybe a little below the 200 DMA then it will be a normal intermediate correction within a cyclical bull market.

If, however, the market were to retrace the entire autumn rally and test the summer lows that will be a very strong sign that all the stimulus and money printing was for naught.

Keep in mind the next four year cycle low is due sometime in 2012. And since bear markets tend to last about a year and a half I strongly suspect this cyclical bull will top sometime this year.

As a matter of fact the market is already potentially forming a megaphone topping pattern. This pattern of wildly expanding volatility is caused by the underlying debt cancer and inflation trying to pull the market down while at the same time the Fed tries to counter the bear market forces with ever larger monetary stimulus.

The result is a market being whipped back and forth in larger and larger swings.

megaphone

In the end the Fed will fail and the next leg down in the secular bear will begin; only this time will be much worse than the last one. All the Fed will have succeeded in doing is making the problem bigger.

I would suggest if one has retirement funds still invested in the stock market they get them out and back into a money market at this time until we see just how far down the market drops as it moves into the yearly cycle trough.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment