• 287 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 287 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 289 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 689 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 694 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 696 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 699 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 699 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 700 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 702 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 702 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 706 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 706 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 707 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 709 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 710 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 713 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 714 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 714 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 716 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

The counterfeit market has breached…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Technical Market Report

The good news is:
 •  All of the intermediate term indicators are still movingsharply upward.
 •  It is difficult to find a raging bull.

Nothing has changed since last week, the market is still overbought and there is still no volume to get excited about.

The NASDAQ new high indicator is a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs. The current value of the indicator is 57 so less than 57 daily new highs on the NASDAQ would turn the indicator downward. The lowest number reported last week was 69 on Tuesday, the only down day of the week. The long side is a good bet when this indicator is moving upward as it is now.

Summation indices (SI) are running totals of oscillator values. When the oscillator is positive the SI moves upward when the oscillator is negative the SI moves downward. The chart below shows SI's derived from oscillators of NASDAQ advances & declines, new highs & new lows and upside & downside volume. All of the SI's are moving sharply upward. When the SI's are all moving the same direction, it is imprudent to bet against them.

The small caps usually lead both up and down. The chart below shows the Russell 2000 (R2K) in red, the S&P 500 (SPX) in green and Accutrack (a FastTrack relative strength indicator) as a histogram in yellow. Accutrack indicates the R2K continues to outperform the SPX as it has since the bottom a month ago.

The missing ingredient of this rally is volume. The chart below shows the NASDAQ composite in red and a 5% trend (39 day EMA) of total NASDAQ volume in blue. Volume turned up slightly in the past week, but has been falling irregularly since late January. Total volume implies interest and it would be nice to see a little in support of this rally.

Seasonally (defining next week as the week prior to options expiration) next week has a slightly positive bias that favors the blue chips.

Witching summary report for September
Witching is futures and options expiration the 3rd Friday of the month.
The witching Friday is marked *Fri*.
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns

R2K
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur *Fri*
1988-4 0.01% 0.09% 0.31% -0.06% 0.20%
1989-1 -0.49% 0.33% -0.03% -0.70% -0.50%
1990-2 -0.30% -0.41% -0.09% -1.51% -0.72%
1991-3 -0.18% -0.10% 0.37% 0.75% 0.62%
1992-4 1.00% -0.78% -0.23% 0.16% 0.26%
1993-1 -0.05% -0.81% 0.36% 0.15% 0.11%
1994-2 -0.35% 0.43% 0.23% 0.87% 0.00%
1995-3 0.15% 0.21% 0.13% 0.05% -0.58%
1996-4 0.44% -0.01% -0.20% -0.07% 0.44%
1997-1 0.02% 1.14% 0.22% 0.08% 0.15%
1998-2 1.16% 0.00% 0.59% -1.27% 2.24%
1999-3 -0.35% -0.32% -0.44% -1.39% 0.98%
2000-4 -0.39% -0.22% 0.29% 0.98% -1.54%
2001-1 3.93% 0.61% -1.61% 0.81% 3.03%
2002-2 -0.99% -1.77% -0.67% -2.98% 0.48%
2003-3 -0.28% 1.58% -0.11% 0.85% 0.14%
Avg 0.21% 0.00% -0.06% -0.21% 0.33%
Win% 44% 50% 50% 56% 75%
 
SPX
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur *Fri*
1988-4 -0.14% 0.36% 0.70% -0.44% 0.94%
1989-1 -0.32% 0.30% -0.93% -0.67% 0.55%
1990-2 0.30% 0.26% -0.63% -1.62% -0.05%
1991-3 0.57% -0.07% 0.37% 0.16% 0.09%
1992-4 1.36% -1.29% 0.04% 0.00% 0.71%
1993-1 0.07% -0.47% 0.37% -0.47% -0.13%
1994-2 -0.42% 0.28% 0.27% 1.28% -0.76%
1995-3 0.21% 0.45% 0.39% 0.84% -0.04%
1996-4 0.51% -0.15% -0.22% 0.22% 0.59%
1997-1 -0.45% 2.81% -0.28% 0.45% 0.34%
1998-2 2.05% 0.77% 0.75% -2.55% 0.12%
1999-3 -0.56% -0.58% -1.37% 0.04% 1.28%
2000-4 -0.35% -0.49% 0.20% -0.27% -1.02%
2001-1 3.90% 0.88% -0.52% 1.15% 2.19%
2002-2 0.14% -1.97% -0.46% -3.01% 0.25%
2003-3 -0.38% 1.43% -0.33% 1.33% -0.32%
Avg 0.41% 0.16% -0.10% -0.22% 0.30%
Win% 56% 56% 50% 56% 63%

There is no evidence of a market turning point.

I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday September 17 than they were on Friday September 10.

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment