• 546 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 546 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 548 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 948 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 952 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 954 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 957 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 958 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 959 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 960 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 961 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 964 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 965 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 966 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 968 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 968 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 971 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 972 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 972 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 974 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Long Term Treasury Yields: Heading Lower

Lost in all the noise about crude oil this week and its effect on the economic recovery (i.e., the equity rally) has been the top in Treasury yields. This article will cover the technical aspects of the Ultra Short Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Fund (symbol: TBT).

Let's start with a weekly chart (see figure 1) of the Ultra Short Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Fund (symbol: TBT); this 2x leveraged ETF moves inverse to bond prices or in the direction of Treasury yields. Key pivot points or areas of support (buying) and resistance (selling) are noted by the pink and black dots. The pink labeled price bars are negative divergence bars. As is seen in the gray oval, a cluster of negative divergence bars is a sign of slowing price momentum. Not all negative divergences lead to a market top, but it is the break below this range and what appears to be a likely weekly close below the key pivot at 38.44 that will seal the deal for TBT. Couple this with the failed breakout, and I believe you have a recipe for lower prices in TBT. Look for TBT to retest the lows at 31.93.

Figure 1. TBT/ weekly
TBT/ weekly

Figure 2 is a daily chart of the TBT, and we note that TBT has fallen out of the rising trend channel. The on balance volume indicator in the lower panel is leading price lower, and the 200 day moving average of price is still down sloping. Support is at 35.30, and these will likely intersect with price at the down sloping 200 day moving average. This will be the first stop on the path to lower prices in TBT.

Figure 2. TBT/ daily
TBT/ daily

In part 2 of this technical review, I will flip the picture around and look at the i - Shares Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Fund (symbol: TLT).

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment