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The graph above contains one month prediction of the stock market (DOW).
As can be seen the direction is down After the turn date around Late February. The Graph (YBR = Yellow Brick Road) is not exact and nothing can ever be, but its ability to predict the big outline of the markets is hardly in question. As readers can clearly see, YBR was able to predict all major turning points with uncanny precision. I have been publishing YBR forecasts for over 4 years now and all of those have been published at this site. This information from YBR has been consistent with our, more refined options based signal generator, whose prediction was published in my previous article six-day-market-forecast. We have got a considerable sell off in the markets after publication of that article and we now, have more information regarding the character of this signal, as compared to the universe of signals. As can be easily seen, the current signal is among the weakest sisters. This leads us to conclude, that the recent bounce will be met with another sell-off or , at least, strong downside test. We believe, that regardless of the strength of the bounce, probability remains high for this market to close below SPX=1235 at some point within next few weeks. Our short term tools will help us decide if and when we may want to take advantage of such move.
Brief notes about other markets:
OIL - Shall see move lower with the markets
GOLD - Ditto as OIL
BONDS - Maybe able to capitalize-higher, short term, on Market move lower
Longer term view is bullish on GOLD and OIL and Bearish on Bonds.
The Graph Above, indicates clearly, again, that FED can distort the markets for those, who are willing to accept that distortion as true market actions. We are far from belonging to that group of investors. We, only, think in terms of REAL PURCHASE POWER of our investments. Any other way of thinking about markets is UNACCEPTABLE to us.
Since our last publication it has become clear, that FED is able to increase MISERY( inflation + unemployment) considerably while claiming they are helping economy. And that is understatement of FEDs none performance. Because, inflation and unemployment themselves are greatly understated (inflation is higher than reported and unemployment reported down is a bad joke, because we seem to have scared all able bodies from seeking the employment - Resulting in drastic reduction of employee population).
Note, even the father of Keynesian Economics himself, Keynes said that "inflation is subtle theft that not even in a million understands" Yet the "Court Yard" economists of today keep espousing the need for more money printing. No wonder the Economics is called a dismal science. Again, I shall reiterate what I said often on these pages. I may not be smart enough to know if we need fiat money or must go back to GOLD standard, but I am sure that regardless of the base of the money, the distribution of it remains the biggest flaw. Distribution of "new money" by the Bankers to the Bankers First, is the source of the real problem. In any system that likes to claim equality this needs to change. Money Expansion must be handled by bypassing the banks and directly to individuals.
One may ask, why so much attention to FED? simply because there is NO FREE MARKET with FED around. And Sorry, but without free markets there is no true competition based capitalism, but the Government decided (re)Distribution of wealth (this is true regardless of the party in control of presidency and congress).
But wait a minute, that is what COMMUNIST USSR was about. Connected ones, had easy money distributed to them, while the rest were struggling. When, the health and wealth, is so indiscriminately distributed then most of other rights fall way apart as well.
Do you think, FOX, BLOOMBERG, OR CNBC will say things like above. Not in your life, when "FREE SPEECH" costs millions of dollars per minute, you have a contradiction in terms(:-. I think that is what EINSTEIN would say too if he was still around.
