• 309 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 309 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 311 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 711 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 715 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 717 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 720 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 721 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 722 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 723 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 724 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 728 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 728 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 729 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 731 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 731 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 735 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 735 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 736 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 738 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

Last week the conclusion was that the market was in a sideways phase. That might not have been completely accurate, since the SP500 lost all of 2.17 points or 0.16%.

But let's check on the state of the trend now.

The March 2009 rally is intact, and is still tracking the 1994-2000 bull market rally rate of growth.

Trends Analysis
Larger Image

The daily chart, however, continues to raise worries.

Trends Analysis
Larger Image

The index broke briefly below monthly support, and finds itself at a critical juncture, backtesting the daily channel.

For the uptrend to continue, SPX needs to claw its way back within the channel. Failure to do so will indicate that the daily sideways/down phase will continue.

Since the Crash of '87, June has been the third weakest month of the year, measured by how many times the close was above the open (50%), and what the average gain was (-0.27%). The strongest day of the month has been June 1st, which closed positive 88.2% of the time, for an average gain of 0.53%. Overall, the daily up/down ratio for the whole month is 43%, and June sports 5 of the 25 weakest days of the year*.

I'll conclude, as usual, with the channel chart for near-term support/resistance levels and trend direction. And this time, I'll let you decide on the state of the trend.

SPX

 


* The complete monthly rankings table and trading day statistics for the whole year can be found in my book Trading the SP500.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment