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The State of the Trend

Last week the conclusion was that the market was in a sideways phase. That might not have been completely accurate, since the SP500 lost all of 2.17 points or 0.16%.

But let's check on the state of the trend now.

The March 2009 rally is intact, and is still tracking the 1994-2000 bull market rally rate of growth.

Trends Analysis
Larger Image

The daily chart, however, continues to raise worries.

Trends Analysis
Larger Image

The index broke briefly below monthly support, and finds itself at a critical juncture, backtesting the daily channel.

For the uptrend to continue, SPX needs to claw its way back within the channel. Failure to do so will indicate that the daily sideways/down phase will continue.

Since the Crash of '87, June has been the third weakest month of the year, measured by how many times the close was above the open (50%), and what the average gain was (-0.27%). The strongest day of the month has been June 1st, which closed positive 88.2% of the time, for an average gain of 0.53%. Overall, the daily up/down ratio for the whole month is 43%, and June sports 5 of the 25 weakest days of the year*.

I'll conclude, as usual, with the channel chart for near-term support/resistance levels and trend direction. And this time, I'll let you decide on the state of the trend.

SPX

 


* The complete monthly rankings table and trading day statistics for the whole year can be found in my book Trading the SP500.

 

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