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The Risk-Reward Market Report

S&P 500 Analysis for week of 5/30/11

Current Primary Trend: Bull Signal - Initiated Sept. 13th

The Primary Trend chart determines our overall long term market strategy of being long or in cash. Once the medium term trend is in the same direction as the primary (long term) chart we then enter the market. Short-term information should assist in your execution of trades. Take the emotion out of your investment decisions. Implementing a trend-following crossover strategy - has no guess work, no sophisticated technical analysis, and no judgment.


Trend Model:

Short-Term Trend: (time frame - days to weeks) - Short-term trend information is used in conjunction with the technical analysis of the particular stock you want to purchase, should help you to get optimum execution on entry and exit positions. Current Status - BEAR

 

Medium-Term Trend: (time frame - weeks to months) Determines possible exit and re-entry points, or entry points when the primary trend is in a corresponding trend. Current Status - Neutral BEARISH

 

Primary Trend: (time frame - months to years ) Long-term trend and possible entry points. Current Status - BULL

 

  • We feel the S&P 500 data gives the broader view of the market, with the best measure of the U.S. economy due to the diversity of sectors represented in it.
  • NASDAQ usually leads both the up and down market trends.
  • Its estimated that 70% of trades are done by High Frequency platforms. Total volume of the NYSE consists of about 28% of the total market volume with around 85% of the NYSE being institutional volume. The NYSE still has the largest institutional investor up/down volumes and should provide a hint at the big institutions buying and selling. (volume accumulation/distribution)
  • Indices Summary Charts


Risk-Reward Advisor

MARKET CORE STRENGTH INDEX (MCSI)
Week of 5/30/2011 - version1.09
2/28 - 7%

 

 

  • bullish zone: 21-38 - 71%
  • caution zone: 10 to 20
  • danger zone: 0 to 9 - 29%


MCSI Summary

MOMENTUM: 1/8
PRICE: 0/8
BREADTH: 1/9
TREND: 0/5


Market Commentary

S&P 500 & DOW had fourth consecutive weekly decline. SPX, NYSE and NASDAQ have either crossed the 12/44 EMA or very close to crossing. Prices are below many important moving averages. Another unimpressive week . Since the May high, we have been trending sideways to down. Aroon confirms a new downtrend. The NYSE Bullish Percent Index is still trending down. Weekly Summation Index is bearish. On the short-term positive side, the McClellan Oscillator, a short-term A/D indicator, has turned up from the -150 level and above the zero line and resistance. The NYSE Advance-Decline Line (A-D) held marginally above a previous support point. Still in a short-term bear pattern of lower highs and lower lows. 1344 is the 1st resistance area. Daily key support levels are at the 100% re-tracement area of 1294 - 1300. 1300 is also the 100 day SMA area, so this is an important intermediate support line. 1249 is the long-term support area. Within the context of the current long-term bull market the short-term trend is in a downtrend. Intermediate trend is neutral bearish.

 


All of our opinions are that, an opinion. Use your own analysis of the market condition indicators. Trend & MCSI Risk Model - Information. Visit us for more information and links at our blog

 

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