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Tail Risk

Considering the euro has followed script smartly - here is an update of the Euro:Silver chart from last Thursday.

Euro / Silver Chart
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From last Thursday's notes:

"As the euro rips higher today after comments by Jean-Claud Trichet and the newly proposed bailout measures firm the struggling euro-zone, it would be wise to watch silver as a proxy for the currency markets. Since silver broke its parabolic formation over a month ago, both markets have been trading with great correlation - with silver leading the way by several sessions. This makes natural sense in the fact that silver is a much shallower and more impressionable market that will trade with greater nuance to the underlying market conditions. Jawboning by the ECB appears to be only momentarily supporting the euro. I would expect the euro to follow suit lower over the next several sessions.

The fact that silver failed to take out the early May dead-cat-bounce highs indicates that the mid May lows will at the very least be tested and likely broken. The violent reversal in silver yesterday gives credibility towards that expectation."

Euro / Silver Chart
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June 2 Euro:Silver

From my perspective, silver appears to be simply consolidating into its next move which will very likely be lower - considerably lower. The dollar continues to exhibit strong congruency to the early 1980's bottom.

Silver vs US Dollar
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You could say recently the tail (silver) has been wagging the dog (euro-currencies).

This action typically precedes the dog bitting its tail.

 

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