• 303 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 303 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 305 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 705 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 710 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 712 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 715 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 715 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 716 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 718 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 718 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 722 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 722 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 723 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 725 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 726 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 729 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 730 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 730 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 732 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Market Outlook: Lower Low Then Green the Next Week

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE GREEN THE NEXT WEEK BUT LIKELY LOWER LOW FIRST

75% to 81% chances a green week the next week, but 83% chances there'll be a lower low first.

Down 6 Consecutive Weeks
Larger Image

Therefore the normal pattern would go like below. Just beware, unlike my mostly precise evil plans in my Intra-day Comment, the daily evil plan is no more than a wishful thinking, perfectly designed forCobra Impulse System, so concept only, doesn't mean the bottom is 1220.

SPX MidTerm
Larger Image

And so according to the evil plan above, if you have trapped longs, while there's one night the next week, the futures, as well as the entire world, are deeply in red, you find very hard to sleep, and to make things worse, after a sharp gap down the next day, the market keeps selling off until you feel pain in your stomach, well, better don't hit the sell button. The charts below are all my ultimate weapons for watching the oversold condition (those who followed me long enough should know that I don't use oversold/overbought as title unless I'm 100% sure a reversal is coming, so those are by no means ordinary indicators), clearly we're almost there now, so if there's indeed a panic the next week, most likely it's a perfect chances to be at least a temporary bull.

8.1.5 Normalized CPCE, too high.

Normalized CPCE
Larger Image

Indicators at Extremes, this means that most of the Sentimentrader indicators are bullish now.

Indicators at Extremes

T2116, too many NYSE stocks are 2 std dev below MA(40).

T2116
Larger Image

T2122, too many NYSE stocks are at 4 weeks low.

T2122
Larger Image

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BEARISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

See 06/03 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH MONDAY AND FRIDAY

According to Stock Trader's Almanac:

  1. Monday of Triple Witching Week, Down down 8 of last 13.
  2. June Triple Witching Day, Dow down 7 of last 12, average loss 0.5%.

Also see 06/01 Market Outlook for June day to day seasonality.

ACTIVE BULLISH SIGNALS:

ACTIVE BEARISH SIGNALS:

  • N/A

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

  TREND COMMENT
SPY & Weekly DOWN Clear breakdown, target March lows as well as MA(200).
QQQ & Weekly DOWN  
IWM & Weekly DOWN Head and Shoulders Top breakdown, target $74.57.
SSEC & Weekly DOWN *Hammer on retest of the previous low, so may be bottomed?
EEM & Weekly DOWN  
XIU & Weekly DOWN *Double Top breakdown, target $17.69. TOADV MA(10) oversold though.
DAX & Weekly DOWN  
TLT & Weekly UP  
UUP & Weekly DOWN *Breakout down trend line then kiss the trend line good-bye?
GLD & Weekly UP  
USO & Weekly DOWN  
XLE & Weekly DOWN *Could be a Complex Head and Shoulders Top in the forming.
XLF & Weekly DOWN  
IYR & Weekly *DOWN *Double Top breakdown, target $57.34.
XLB & Weekly DOWN  
  • * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  • UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
  • DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment