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Michael Pollaro

Michael Pollaro

Michael Pollaro is a retired Investment Banking professional, most recently Chief Operating Officer for the Bank's Cash Equity Trading Division. He is a passionate free…

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US Government's Fiscal State Worsens, DC Politicians Fiddle

The numbers for the U.S. government's fiscal month end May 2011 are in and they're not looking so good. All we can say is "Washington do you really get the drill."

For the twelve months ending May 2011, the government's deficit is $1.3 trillion, equating to 8.7% of nominal GDP. Yes, down a percentage point or so from its recent high, but in a supposed recovery a horrible number still.

Underscoring that ugly number, government receipts to outlays remain near historic lows. At a scary 64% that ratio is up just 4 percentage points these past twelve months, this despite a 10.7% increase in government receipts. On that kind of revenue performance, why just a paltry 4 percentage points? Because, notwithstanding all the talk about cost cutting in Washington DC, guess what's up... government outlays to the tune of 4.4%. And as for those receipts... sure, up nicely, but a suspect trend we surmise, likely spiked by capital gains taxes on an asset reflation trade that could very well be running out of gas.

The result of all this, of course, is a U.S. government borrowing binge that just won't quit. Problem is that borrowing binge is overwhelming America's savings pool, this despite a private sector desperately trying to refill the pool. The fact is, U.S. Treasury borrowing has taken some 110% of net U.S. private savings (NPS) these past twelve months. You can't grow the economy and thereby raise government revenues, we submit, when that same government is sucking up the very fuel for that growth.

More commentary available at: US Government's Fiscal State Worsens, DC Politicians Fiddle

 

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