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The State of the Trend

Opex week did little to change the outlook going forward.

The daily trend continues to be down, and 1250 is still a valid target.

The daily trend continues to be down

Looking at the weekly chart, the failed backtest of the trendline extending from the August 2010 low does not bode well. 1240 remains the key level that needs to hold in order for the weekly uptrend to stay alive.

weekly chart
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On the monthly chart, the SP500 finds itself at a critical juncture as well. The downward projections remain 990, 839, and 600.

SP500 monthly chart
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The Channel chart shows the long/short odds as evenly matched. Given the close proximity of key support levels, it seems best to exercise a little more patience, and let the market tip its hand.

Channel chart
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